Stocks and energy markets saw big swings on Monday after US President Donald Trump told CBS News that the war in Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” Later, at a Florida press conference, Trump repeated the message, saying the US was “achieving major strides toward completing our military objectives.”
Oil prices had jumped dramatically overnight, with US crude soaring as much as 32% to $119 per barrel. By 4 pm ET, prices fell roughly 5% to about $86 per barrel. International Brent crude also dropped more than 3.5% to under $89 per barrel. Meanwhile, US stocks also reversed earlier losses. The S&P 500, which had fallen as much as 1.5%, ended up 0.83% higher. The Nasdaq climbed 1.38%, bouncing back from a 1.4% drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from an 880-point fall to finish up 239 points.
Why Crude Oil prices crashed below $90: The 4 key drivers
Trump declares the Iran War ‘is nearing the end’
After a weekend of intense strikes on Iran’s infrastructure, Trump signalled that the war was nearing its end. He added that Iran’s navy, communications, and air force had been largely neutralised. Markets had expected a long, drawn-out conflict that would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for months. But Trump’s comments suggested the main military phase could end much sooner than anticipated. Traders adjusted, and the “fear premium” built into oil prices evaporated almost instantly.
“This was just an excursion into something that had to be done,” Trump told CBS. “We’re getting very close to finishing that, too.”
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway carrying about 20% of the world’s oil supply, has nearly come to a standstill for commercial shipping. Trump said the US could take strong action if Iran interferes. “They’ve shot everything they have to shoot, and they better not try anything cute or it’s going to be the end of that country. … If they do anything bad, that would be the end of Iran, and you’d never hear the name again,” he warned.
Trump also said the strait is open now, and ships have been entering, but he is still “thinking about taking it over.”
G7 signals readiness to release strategic reserves
After Crude oil prices spiked beyond $100, in an emergency virtual meeting, the G7 Finance Ministers, alongside the International Energy Agency, confirmed they were ready to release Strategic Petroleum Reserves to offset supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. G7 sent a clear signal — prices above $150 per barrel would not be allowed to stick. This move capped traders’ expectations and led to the sudden fall in oil prices.
Meanwhile, White House officials have also been discussing the possibility of a joint release. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed on Monday that the US is considering coordinating sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but has not made a decision. He also said that the US is not currently considering restricting exports as a way to control prices.
US- Russia talks and sanction adjustments
Another factor was the evolving US-Russia relationship. Following a key phone call between Trump and Vladimir Putin, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the US was considering lifting sanctions on hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian oil currently stranded.
The White House is worried that the surge in oil prices following over a week of US and Israeli strikes on Iran could hurt US businesses and consumers, especially ahead of the November midterm elections. Republican leaders are eager to retain control of Congress, making energy costs a politically sensitive issue.
Speaking to reporters in Florida, Trump confirmed that his administration is lifting sanctions on some countries to stabilise the oil market, though he did not provide specifics. “So we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until the Strait is up,” he said, referring to the Strait of Hormuz.
Easing sanctions on Russia could boost global oil supply at a time when Middle East shipments are disrupted, though it could also complicate efforts to limit Russia’s revenue from the war in Ukraine. Trump added that he had a “very good call” with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine.
Market Mechanics: Panic and technical selling
Finally, the technical side of trading accelerated the crash. Brent had reached $119.50 overnight due to panic buying. Once Trump’s statements hit the news, many traders were forced to sell, pushing prices down to $85–$88. Even with ongoing conflicts, global oil inventories were projected to have a surplus in 2026. Once the threat of a long-term blockade was downplayed, underlying market realities reasserted themselves.