Citrini Research’s report, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, has caught the world’s attention. The report offers detailed insights into equity markets and the global economy, using a mix of different assets and creative thinking. In this 2028 scenario, AI doesn’t just help people do their work, it actually takes over their jobs entirely, leading to recession and growth collapse.
Citrini is a widely followed independent financial research publication based in United States.
James van Geelen, the paramedic-turned-contrarian behind Citrini Research, and Alap Shah, the fintech veteran of Lotus Technology, have spent the last two years mapping the “Second Wave” of AI with clinical precision. Citrini Research says we are moving past the early focus on hardware. Now, in “Phase 2” of the AI trade, companies are focusing on making operations more efficient and replacing expensive human labor.
Meet the Architect of the “Intelligence Crisis”
Who is Alap Shah?
While van Geelen looks at the big-picture economic trends, Shah focuses on the technical side. As former CEO of Sentieo, he built AI tools that now automate many research tasks. Shah introduces the idea of “Agentic Commerce.” For example, if an AI books a flight, it will likely use a direct, programmable payment system rather than a credit card with fees.
This approach explains why the report contributed to the recent sell-off in payments stocks. Companies like DoorDash and Visa rely on friction in transactions, and when that friction is removed, so is part of their revenue.
Shah is the CEO of Littlebird in the New York City area since September 2024, and he is also Managing Partner at Lotus Technology Management in Florida since March 2011. Additionally, he co-founded and chairs Thistle in the San Francisco Bay Area since April 2013.
Shah previously co-founded Sentieo, an AI-powered financial search platform. He served as its CEO from December 2011 to September 2020, and as Chairman from September 2020 to May 2022. Sentieo was later acquired by AlphaSense.
Governments should consider taxing AI to offset job losses
Speaking to Bloomberg, a day after publishing ther research, Shah suggested that governments may need to think about taxing artificial intelligence to soften the blow of job losses. “The smarter AI gets, the more jobs it can replace,” Shah, chief investment officer at Lotus Technology Management, told Bloomberg TV. He added that falling consumer spending from these job losses could hurt the economy. “Governments should consider policies such as taxing incremental or windfall gains from AI,” he said.
Shah believes the main winners from AI are chipmakers, data centers, and foundation labs. On the other hand, businesses that act as intermediaries, like insurers and banks, are more at risk. Looking ahead, Shah expects more market swings, particularly in software companies, as traders evaluate AI’s long-term impact. “We are entering a really highly volatile time in the markets,” he said.
The AI ‘scare trade’ hits the market
Markets reacted strongly after Citrini Research. The report painted future scenarios where companies in food delivery and credit cards could struggle, sparking a selloff in delivery, payments, and software stocks. The S&P 500 fell 1%, and a software-focused exchange-traded fund dropped 4.8%, bringing its total decline from September to roughly 35% amid fears that AI could eat into company earnings. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) suffered its worst drop in 25 years.
Shah admitted he was taken aback by the market reaction. “I thought there was going to be a small reaction, it was definitely larger than we expected.” The conversation around AI is heating up, with uncertainty over how it will affect employment. Some worry about mass layoffs, while others point out that past technological advances have created new industries and jobs.
Shah predicts AI could reduce white-collar employment by 5% over the next 18 months. He said the US will be a key place to watch for AI’s effects on jobs because its labor market is fast-moving. “It’s much easier to fire folks than it is in other parts of the world,” he noted.