S&P Global has released the May flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the United States, which are viewed as early indicators of the country’s economic health.
The S&P Global US Composite PMI remained stable at 51.7 in May 2026, indicating resilient private sector activity despite a slowdown compared to earlier in the year. The US Manufacturing PMI increased to 55.3, exceeding market expectations and marking the strongest expansion since May 2022, with significant output growth and job creation levels not seen since June 2025.
Overall, the Flash US Composite PMI Output Index remains steady at 51.7. The Services PMI Business Activity Index declines slightly to 50.9, marking a 2-month low. The Manufacturing Output Index rises to 56.2, reaching a 49-month high, while the Manufacturing PMI increases to 55.3, a 48-month high. Readings of 50 or more signal economic expansion, while those below indicate contraction.
Services PMI
The S&P Global US Services PMI eased to 50.9 in May of 2026 from 51 in the previous month, only slightly below the median market consensus of 51.1, according to a preliminary estimate. The result extended the rebound from the previous month, following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which pressured the sector into a contraction in March.
Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May, up from 54.5 in April to sit at its highest since May 2022. The expansion means factory business conditions have improved continually since last August.
Production growth was the fastest since April 2022 and jobs were added at a rate not seen since June of last year. While new order growth slowed, it was the second fastest seen over the past four years. Input inventories also added positively to the PMI, rising to the greatest extent for 11 months. However, this in part reflected the building of safety stocks amid price and supply worries. Supplier delivery times have lengthened to the greatest degree since August 2022.
US business activity growth held steady in May at a modest rate compared to earlier in the year, according to flash PMI data from S&P Global, as an improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector.
However, factory growth was again in part supported by temporary stock building and both sectors reported that order book growth had been somewhat subdued by the ongoing war in the Middle East, most notably in terms of export sales.
Surging input costs, which jumped in May at the steepest rate since late 2022 on the back of rising war-related supply constraints and steep energy cost increases, were not only cited as causing lower sales but also contributed to steepening job losses and a further rise in selling price inflation to its highest since August 2022.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, notes, “The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the business surveys. The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook.
Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter. However, even this subdued pace of growth may not last. On average, over the past three months, order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever.”
Business activity continued to grow in May but at a reduced rate compared to that seen earlier in the year. The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index, covering both manufacturing and services, held steady at 51.7 in May.
Growth over the past three months since the outbreak of war in the Middle East has been the weakest seen since the start
of 2024.
Future sentiment
Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead have also diverged. Service sector optimism fell to its weakest since April 2025, and second lowest since October 2022, reflecting growing concern over the outlook for demand thanks to surging prices, higher interest rates and heightened political uncertainty. In contrast, manufacturers were at their most optimistic since February 2025 and one of the highest levels seen since the pandemic, thanks to the recent upturn in orders and the ongoing anticipation of tariff-related reshoring.
S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI Survey
The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI is compiled from questionnaires sent to approximately 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers. It is a crucial business survey, valued by central banks, financial markets, and business leaders for its timely and precise monthly insights into economic trends.
The headline manufacturing figure is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%).
April PMI Data
In April, the US business activity growth showed a slight recovery after near-stagnation in March due to the Middle East conflict. Overall expansion remained weak, especially in the services sector, where demand decreased. However, manufacturing output improved, partly due to stock building amid supply concerns and price increases.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised to 54.5 in April 2026, up from a preliminary estimate of 54.0 and significantly above March’s 52.3, marking the strongest expansion in the manufacturing sector since May 2022.
Disclaimer: This article is based on flash PMI data released by S&P Global for May 2026 and is intended for informational purposes only. PMI flash estimates are preliminary and subject to revision upon release of final data. Readers are encouraged to consult qualified financial professionals before making any decisions based on this information.