The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the February 2026 CPI data. US equity futures were muted before the US CPI data was released by the BLS. After the release of the latest US inflation numbers, the US equity futures are trading slightly in the red. Gold and silver also continue to trend lower after the US CPI data was published.
The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending February, the same increase as reported for the 12 months ending January. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the year, also the same increase as reported for the 12 months ending in January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.3-percent increase in January.
However, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.2 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in February and was the largest factor in the all-items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The index for energy also increased in February, rising 0.6 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, apparel, household furnishings and operations, airline fares, and education. Conversely, the indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, and personal care were among the major indexes that decreased in February.
US CPI data for January
Looking back, the US CPI data for January was a sort of breather for the market and the US Fed. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, marking its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The all-items less food and energy index rose 2.5% over the last 12 months, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.
Oil Price Update
Brent crude futures regained stability near $90 per barrel after nearing $93, as traders evaluated the potential for a coordinated oil reserves release to alleviate market pressure. Japan is expected to release reserves as soon as Monday, following a proposal by the IEA for its largest coordinated release to date.
The G7 has expressed support for stockpile discussions, with ministers meeting today. Major Middle Eastern producers have reduced output by over 6 million barrels per day due to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC is anticipated to release its monthly assessment of the global crude market later today.
The US inflation data for February arrives at a time when oil prices are significantly up after the strikes by US-Israel on Iran. Brent crude oil price closed around $70, a day before the Middle East war began on February 28. As the week progressed, crude price touched a high of $119 before dropping to trade around $90 at around 5.11 pm IST on March 11.
Oil prices have risen by more than 30%, potentially putting pressure on the cost of products and services. That, however, will be obvious in the March US CPI figures, which will be released on April 10.
Gold and Silver Price Update
Meanwhile, Gold and Silver are holding their ground, showing no big movement in either direction since the war began. Gold rose to around $5,210 and silver is around $88 per ounce on Wednesday. Here’s why gold hasn’t spiked despite rising geopolitical risks.
Gold and silver prices are likely to remain under pressure if the US Fed continues to maintain rates without aggressively reducing them. When interest rates remain high, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding asset such as gold increases. There’s, investors will not show high demand for gold, which in turn will keep prices subdued.
US Fed Rate Cut Update
The next FOMC meeting is on March 17-18, where the rates are likely to remain unchanged. Currently, markets expect the US Fed to remain in the wait-and-watch mode and have lowered their expectation to just a single cut in 2026. However, the March US FOMC meeting will reveal the dot-plot and economic projections from Fed members, providing insights into future rates.
The economic projections from Fed members will likely account for the inflationary pressure arising from the ongoing war in the Middle East. Therefore, the press conference of US Fed chair Powell on March 18 will be a keenly watched event for the market.