After the spectacular launch of the SpaceX IPO and a successful listing on Nasdaq, the share price of Elon Musk’s space company is diving. SpaceX has lost over 50% of its value from the peak price of $225 and now trades around $110, below its $150 listing price.
And the fall in price may not be over. Starting next month, huge chunks of SpaceX shares come out of their lock-in period, and over the next few months, more restricted shares get freed up for sale. This staggered release of shares is what investors should watch closely.
Lock-in Timetable
During the IPO, Elon Musk’s SpaceX raised nearly $86 billion by selling just 5% of its stock. That left 95%, approximately 12.5 billion shares, locked up.
In the US stock market, IPOs are usually subject to a standard 180-day lock-in period, meaning shares can be sold anytime after a single cut-off date. SpaceX did it differently.
Musk chose a different route for his space stock. The SpaceX prospectus, released on June 11, 2026, reveals the timeline for the sale of restricted shares. It is a long and complicated one. SpaceX has created a share release schedule featuring at least 16-17 unlock dates, each tied to different criteria.
But Musk himself is not selling any shares yet. He is not allowed to under the agreement. Musk and others who control a majority stake in the company can start selling only after 366 days from the prospectus date.
The first unlocking for other insiders comes much sooner. Up to 911.5 million shares get freed on the second full trading day on Nasdaq following the first earnings release date, which is August 4.
Insiders are also allowed to sell up to 7% of their stock on each of the 70th, 90th, 91st, 105th, 120th, and 135th days after the IPO, which fall on August 20, September 9, September 10, September 24, October 9, and October 24.
Source: SpaceX prospectus dated June 11, 2026
On the second full trading day on Nasdaq after the release of quarterly results for the period ending September 30, 2026, approximately 1.3 billion shares of Class A common stock, making up 28% of shares under the 180-day lock-up, get unlocked. This is the single biggest release on the calendar.
On December 8, 2026, 180 days after the prospectus date, up to 328.4 million shares of Class A common stock become available if the additional release shares were already released on the first earnings release date, or up to 797.6 million shares if they were not.
On the second full trading day on Nasdaq after quarterly results for the quarter ending December 31, 2026, up to 351.9 million shares of Class A common stock get released, accounting for 20% of shares under an extended lock-up period.
As of May 17, 2027, up to 176.0 million shares of Class A common stock will become available, making up 10% of shares under the extended lock-up period, excluding Musk’s shares. A similar 10% tranche, also 176.0 million shares, unlocks earlier as well.
On the second full trading day on Nasdaq after quarterly results for the period ending March 31, 2027, up to 351.9 million shares of Class A common stock get unlocked, accounting for 20% of shares under the extended lock-up period.
Then comes the big one for Musk. As of June 12, 2027, up to 351.9 million shares of Class A common stock become available, accounting for 20% of shares under the extended lock-up period. On the same date, up to 6.4 billion shares of Class A common stock become available, representing all shares held by Musk, including shares convertible from his Class B common stock, which includes 350 million shares underlying options.
On the second full trading day after the company’s quarterly results for the quarter ending June 30, 2027, up to 351.9 million more shares of Class A common stock, still under the extended lock-up, get released.
Impact on Price
Unlike in typical US IPOs, SpaceX’s insider lock-in starts unwinding next month and continues in stages for a full year, not all at once.
SpaceX’s market cap currently stands at around $1.51 trillion, well below the $2 trillion mark it touched right after listing. Since that initial excitement, the stock has been sliding, losing 30% in just the last 30 days.
The unlocking schedule points to more weakness ahead, not less.
Before the listing, Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University and a well-known expert in company valuations, had valued SpaceX at around $1.3 trillion in his post-prospectus assessment. Also in June, during the IPO process, Morningstar analysts Nicolas Owens and Suryansh Sharma valued SpaceX using projected cash flows at $780 billion, which is 50% lower than its current market capitalization.
Taken together, the Morningstar and Damodaran valuations, combined with the unlocking timeline, suggest the stock may still have room to fall before it settles.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Stock prices, valuations, and lock-up schedules are based on publicly available prospectus filings and third-party analyst estimates. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The publisher and author accept no liability for losses arising from reliance on this content.
