Here’s the thing about Dan Ives’ top AI picks for 2026: the most interesting part isn’t what’s on the list. It’s what’s conspicuously missing.
Nvidia, the chipmaker that’s been the undisputed champion of the AI rally, didn’t make Ives’ top five. But before you start penning angry letters to Wedbush Securities, understand the logic: this isn’t a snub. It’s a thesis.
“For every dollar spent on a Nvidia chip, there’s an $8-$10 multiplier across the rest of tech,” Ives told CNBC. Translation: the real money in 2026 won’t be made selling the picks and shovels. It’ll be made by those using them to strike gold.
So who made the cut? Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Palantir, and CrowdStrike. Three Magnificent Seven members, one “cult stock” (Palantir), and a cybersecurity play that’s apparently being chronically underestimated by the Street.
Let’s break them down.
Microsoft: The Azure awakening
The pitch: Wall Street is sleeping on Azure’s growth story.
Ives believes Microsoft’s cloud computing business is being systematically undervalued. The company has spent billions on AI infrastructure, partnered with OpenAI (remember that little outfit?), and is pushing Copilot integration across its Office 365 suite like it’s going out of style.
The stock is up about 15-16% in 2025, respectable, but lagging the S&P 500’s 17% gain. Which, in Ives’ view, creates an opportunity. When the Azure numbers start reflecting the infrastructure buildout and enterprise AI adoption accelerates, the re-rating could be swift.
Apple: The elephant in Cupertino
The pitch: The invisible AI strategy needs to become visible. Fast.
This is the controversial pick. While Microsoft, Tesla, and the others have been shouting their AI credentials from the rooftops, Apple has been… well, doing Apple things. Buying back $20 billion worth of stock per quarter. Maintaining its premium hardware margins. Generally acting like a company that makes products people actually want to buy.
But Ives sees untapped potential: 2.4 billion iOS devices, 1.5 billion iPhones, and an installed base that’s stickier than superglue. “The time is now for Apple to accelerate its AI efforts,” he writes, estimating that proper AI monetization could add $75-$100 per share to Apple’s valuation over the next few years.
Here’s the tension: Apple has been different from its Big Tech peers this year. While others pour billions into capex and training runs, Apple has been disciplined, some would say conservative. That discipline has earned it the second-highest forward P/E ratio among Magnificent Seven stocks (behind Tesla).
The risk? If Apple pivots hard into an aggressive AI strategy, it becomes just another AI company, except one that’s late to the party. The advantage? It can harvest everyone else’s capex spending and apply those advances to its already-loyal user base without the same level of infrastructure investment.
Recent personnel changes suggest Tim Cook is aware of the problem. Whether Apple can thread this needle, becoming more AI-forward without losing what makes it Apple, is the billion-dollar question.
Tesla: The autonomous chapter begins
The pitch: This isn’t about EVs anymore. It’s about AI on wheels (and legs).
Ives recently outlined a path for Tesla to hit $3 trillion in market cap by the end of 2026, double its current $1.5 trillion valuation. The catalyst? The Cybercab, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots.
“This is an autonomous chapter now, coming to Tesla. You see Musk right now… wartime CEO,” Ives said, describing Tesla as one of the two best plays in physical AI (alongside Nvidia).
Even after disappointing Q4 delivery numbers, Ives maintained his optimism: “Street will view this as demand stabilizing. All focus is autonomous.”
The stock is up about 14% in 2025, solid, but the real test comes when Tesla starts proving it can monetize its Full Self-Driving technology and Optimus robot at scale.
Palantir: The cult stock goes mainstream
The pitch: A golden path to $1 trillion.
Palantir has been described as a “cult stock,” and with a 143.5% gain in 2025, it’s easy to see why believers are fervent. The company’s AI platform has seen “unprecedented” demand from both government and commercial customers.
Ives thinks the $439 billion company has a “golden path” to reach $1 trillion in valuation within two to three years. That’s not a typo. He’s predicting the market cap could more than double.
The catalyst would be Palantir’s commercial segment revenue taking off. If the company can replicate its government success in the private sector, helping enterprises deploy AI systems that actually work, the growth trajectory could justify the lofty valuation.
CrowdStrike: The derivative beneficiary
The pitch: AI-powered cybersecurity is being underestimated.
This is the “derivative” play in its purest form. As companies deploy more AI systems, they need to secure them. CrowdStrike, which has already posted a 39.1% gain in 2025, could see its shares hit $700 (from about $477 currently) if it executes on its core growth strategy.
“We believe increased market and mind share is happening for CrowdStrike among new and existing customers as the company’s product suite continues to expand,” Ives wrote.
It’s the classic arms dealer logic: when everyone’s fighting the AI wars, sell them weapons, or in this case, shields.
The bottom line
Ives predicts tech stocks could surge 20-25% in 2026, but with a crucial caveat: “It’s a prove-it year.”
The easy money phase of AI, the period where simply announcing “we’re doing AI stuff” sent stocks soaring, is over. Now comes the monetization phase. Companies need to show that their billions in capex spending actually translate to revenue growth and margin expansion.
“It’s not just about Big Tech stocks this year; other players in the industry stand to benefit as well,” Ives said.
The second, third, and fourth-order derivatives are playing out. The companies that can capture that $8-$10 multiplier for every dollar spent on AI infrastructure? Those are Ives’ picks for 2026.
Time will tell if following the money trail, rather than just betting on the chipmakers, proves to be the winning strategy. But one thing’s certain: 2026 will be the year AI moves from infrastructure buildout to “show me the money.”
And Ives is betting these five companies will be the ones counting the cash.
Sonia Boolchandani is a seasoned financial writer She has written for prominent firms like Vested Finance, and Finology, where she has crafted content that simplifies complex financial concepts for diverse audiences.
Disclosure: The writer and her his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed in this article.
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