The $5 Trillion Club: Nvidia got there first. Who’s next?

Currently, NVIDIA’s market cap stands at approximately $5.23 trillion, ahead of expected earnings results on May 20. But what is behind the meteoric rise in NVIDIA’s stock price? NVIDIA’s stock price surge is driven by high demand for artificial intelligence services, with its graphics processing units being utilized by leading companies, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, as well as developers like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Who Is Next to Hit $5 Trillion?

NVIDIA has close competition on its heels. Beyond Nvidia, other companies in the top quartile are positioned to join the $5 trillion club, reflecting sustained demand for AI infrastructure. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are the strong contenders in line to cross the $5 trillion market cap valuation.

But are Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet direct rivals of NVIDIA? Because Google AdWords and YouTube account for a significant portion of Alphabet’s revenue, the company is largely seen as an advertising company.

Similarly, Microsoft’s major line of business is Business productivity tools and for Amazon, the are the principal source of income is their online store.

Still, competition is gearing up within the AI space. NVIDIA is encountering rising competition in the AI sector, particularly from Alphabet, a significant customer, which has announced new chips aimed at rivaling NVIDIA’s products, set to launch for cloud customers later this year.

“For Alphabet, the key strength is its AI-native foundation. Google has leadership across search, data, YouTube, cloud infrastructure, and AI research itself. What investors are now beginning to appreciate is that Google is monetising AI across multiple layers simultaneously, from enterprise cloud to consumer search to AI models and chips,” says Viram Shah, Founder & CEO, Vested Finance.

Where do they stand now?

Here is how the three contenders compare today. Alphabet, with a market cap of $4.81 trillion, trading around $400, is up over 150% in the last 12 months. In contrast, Microsoft, at $3.1 trillion, trading around $415, is down by 7.5% in the last 12 months. Meanwhile, Amazon, at a $2.8 trillion market cap, trading around $272, is up over 30% in the last 12 months.

What tilts the balance towards Microsoft is its valuation compared to peers, although P/E may not be the only factor to consider in stock picking. P/E multiples of Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are approximately 41, 29, 33, and 29, respectively.

“Five trillion dollars is not a market cap milestone worth noting in isolation. At that level, a single company exceeds the GDP of every economy on earth except the United States and China. Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and India: all smaller.

The combined market caps of the five largest US technology companies approach $20 trillion, roughly equal to the GDP of the United States itself. These are more than statistics about stock prices. They track where economic value, at a global scale, is concentrating,” says Subho Moulik is Founder & CEO of Appreciate.

Cloud Computing

What’s driving the AI revolution in the technology companies is Cloud Computing. And, how is that changing the dynamics? Cloud computing provides on-demand access to computing resources like storage and infrastructure via the internet, allowing users to avoid managing physical resources and pay only for what they use. The business model involves constructing large data centers and leasing their computing power online. All three companies, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, have effectively adopted and profitably implemented this business model.

“Cloud computing is definitely one of the biggest growth engines for these companies today, but the story is now broader than just cloud storage or computing power. AI is effectively becoming the next operating layer of the internet economy. The companies that own cloud infrastructure are also becoming owners of AI infrastructure, compute capacity, enterprise AI workflows, and developer ecosystems. In many ways, AI demand is accelerating cloud demand rather than replacing it,” says Shah.

Microsoft

The latest quarterly report shows that Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength continue to deliver strong growth for the company. “The race to the $5 trillion market cap is increasingly becoming a race around AI infrastructure, cloud dominance, and ecosystem depth. After Nvidia, Microsoft appears to be the strongest contender to potentially reach the milestone first, largely because it sits at the intersection of enterprise software, cloud computing, and AI monetisation. Microsoft’s AI business has already crossed a $37 billion annual revenue run rate, growing 123% year-on-year, while Azure cloud growth continues to remain extremely strong,” says Shah.

Alphabet

For Alphabet, Google Cloud saw a meaningful acceleration in growth as revenues increased 63% to $20.0 billion, led by an increase in Google Cloud Platform (GCP) across enterprise AI Solutions and enterprise AI Infrastructure, as well as core GCP services, in the latest Quarterly results.

Google Search experienced significant growth in the last quarter, with AI experiences boosting usage and queries reaching an all-time high, resulting in a 19% revenue increase. Additionally, Google Cloud revenues surged by 63%, with its backlog nearly doubling to over $460 billion quarter on quarter.

“For Alphabet, the key strength is its AI-native foundation. Google has leadership across search, data, YouTube, cloud infrastructure, and AI research itself. What investors are now beginning to appreciate is that Google is monetising AI across multiple layers simultaneously, from enterprise cloud to consumer search to AI models and chips,” informs Shah.

Amazon

Originally an online store, Amazon has transformed into a major AI powerhouse. Amazon is aggressively expanding its AI footprint across multiple fronts. Its custom silicon business — Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro chips — has crossed a $20 billion annual revenue run rate, growing triple digits year-over-year. Major AI firms, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, have signed large-scale AWS compute deals. Amazon Bedrock is seeing explosive adoption, processing more tokens in Q1 than all prior years combined, with 170% quarter-over-quarter customer spend growth. On the consumer side, Health AI and the Quick desktop app bring agentic AI to everyday users.

The Road Ahead

The investment landscape for Big Tech has changed significantly. Wall Street now prioritizes control over the AI economy’s foundational elements—compute infrastructure, developer platforms, and enterprise relationships—over merely focusing on quarterly profits. Companies that establish dominance in these areas will gain long-lasting competitive advantages that are difficult to overturn.

“One important thing investors should recognise is that trillion-dollar companies today are no longer being valued purely on current earnings. Markets are increasingly valuing long-term control over AI infrastructure, data, developer ecosystems, and enterprise workflows. This is why companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure despite short-term pressure on free cash flows. Investors are effectively betting that AI could become as transformative as the internet itself over the next decade.”

And Then There Is Apple

In the race to the $5 trillion club, there is one more company not to be ignored — Apple. Although a late starter, Apple is adopting a distinct strategy regarding capital expenditures compared to its competitors. Apple’s R&D expenditure reached 10.3% of its revenue in the March quarter, reflecting increased investments in artificial intelligence. Sitting on a $4.2 trillion market cap, the race to $5 trillion is wide open — and Apple could yet surprise everyone.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for general awareness only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Market capitalisation figures, P/E multiples, revenue data, and stock price movements cited are based on publicly available information at the time of writing. Investments in US technology stocks involve currency risk, market volatility, and regulatory considerations. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Readers are strongly advised to conduct independent due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions.