FOMC Meeting Today: All eyes on Kevin Warsh press conference as the new US Fed chair

The bigger story, however, is the man at the podium.

New Sheriff in Town

Kevin Warsh is holding his first press conference as the new Fed chairman, following Jerome Powell’s retirement in May. That alone is enough to keep investors glued to their screens.

Besides Warsh’s debut, the meeting will also produce the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, a chart showing where policymakers expect rates to go, along with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections.

Goodbye ‘Easing Bias’?

One quiet but important change may be coming in the language of the FOMC statement. The term ‘easing bias’ — which signals that the Fed leans toward cutting rates — could be dropped this time.

In plain terms, ‘easing bias’ means the Fed is open to rate cuts rather than hikes. But in April’s meeting, three members already pushed back on keeping this language, arguing it sends the wrong signal in an inflationary environment. Expect that phrase to quietly disappear from June’s statement.

However, the recent drop in oil prices due to the new US-Iran agreement may lessen the pressure on the Federal Reserve to change its current easing bias.

Markets and The US Fed

The US financial markets are entering a highly sensitive phase. All the monetary, economic, and geopolitical concerns are converging at a time when investors are eagerly monitoring for signals from the Federal Reserve that could influence capital flows in the second half of the year.

“If policymakers maintain a cautious tone while acknowledging continued progress in containing inflation and preserving the possibility of future policy easing, investors may interpret this as additional support for risk assets. Such an outcome could provide the S&P 500 with an opportunity to target higher levels in the months ahead,” says Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com.

“Conversely, if the Fed expresses greater concern about inflationary pressures or signals a delay in potential monetary easing, markets could face another wave of profit-taking and corrective selling,” adds Gule.

Warsh’s Big Challenge

Warsh is stepping in at a tough moment. Inflation is rising again, the job market is holding up, and markets are now pricing in a possible rate hike by December — a sharp reversal from what many expected at the start of 2026.

Warsh is President Trump’s pick for the role. Trump has been publicly pushing for rate cuts for over a year, but markets believe the Fed will hold firm for now. Interestingly, Trump appears to trust Warsh more than he trusted Powell, giving the new chair more room to manoeuvre.

Warsh’s stated agenda includes cutting rates gradually over time, shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, and rethinking how inflation is measured, a potentially significant shift in how the central bank operates. Much of this direction should become clearer after Wednesday’s press conference.

He also needs to quickly build trust and consensus among the 12 members of the FOMC — including the New York Fed president, four rotating regional bank presidents, and seven permanent Board of Governors members. That’s no small task for a new chair walking into a room full of strong opinions.

“We expect Kevin Warsh to maintain broad policy continuity in the near term. Establishing credibility as the new Fed Chair will likely require maintaining a disciplined inflation-fighting stance while preserving policy flexibility. We expect him to emphasize that a rate cut remains possible later this year, provided inflation continues to moderate alongside lower energy prices. Markets are likely to view Warsh’s first meeting positively, as it should reinforce continuity while preserving the possibility of future policy easing,” says Nachiketa Sawrikar, fund manager, Artha Global Multiplier fund.

A Tale of Two Halves

The story of 2026 can be split into two parts — before and after June 15.

On June 15, news broke that the US and Iran are set to sign a peace agreement in Switzerland this Friday. The deal, if it holds, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global oil shipping lane that has been disrupted due to the conflict.

Markets immediately reacted positively. Oil prices fell, and the probability of a rate hike declined. But as seen with previous such announcements in the region, whether this deal actually materialises remains to be seen.

What the First Half of 2026 Looked Like

The first six months of 2026 saw a dramatic shift in market thinking — from expecting rate cuts to bracing for potential rate hikes.

The Iran war sent oil prices surging over 40%, and inflation followed. US annual inflation climbed to 3.8% in April, and then jumped to 4.2% in May 2026 — the highest reading since April 2023. Energy costs alone rose 23.5% in May, up from 17.9% in April, making it clear that the war’s economic impact is spreading well beyond just petrol prices.

Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial, says, “Now that the Iran crisis has extended into June, we have begun to see broader impacts across several categories of consumer prices.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through the Labor Day weekend, we would expect the energy shock to affect additional sectors and heighten uncertainty about the future path of monetary policy. Rate expectations could be further upended if this crisis lasts throughout the summer. Expect the Fed to remain on hold while removing any bias toward additional easing.”

The Iran Factor

At the heart of all Fed decisions right now is the Iran war. A genuine peace deal would be a major positive for equities, oil, gold, silver, and rate expectations alike. Brent oil price is down 30% over the last month, trading at under $80.

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, says, “It’s very possible that things wrap up in the Middle East and shipping gets back to normal over the course of the rest of the year, in which case we can see inflation come down over time and the Fed could hold off raising rates, but if things stay as they are currently, then all bets are off.”

The Fed is watching. So are the markets. And so should you.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investment in foreign securities involves significant risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial reporting standards, and varying regulatory environments. The historical performance of US stocks is not a guarantee of future returns, and gains should not be viewed as an offer or solicitation to buy. Readers are advised to consult a registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly and past expectations may not reflect future outcomes.