Oil prices have risen significantly in the past week, bringing renewed attention to US CPI data. If US CPI data stays sticky in February, expect some profit booking in gold and silver, unless new triggers emerge to support prices.
Market traders and investors are closely watching the inflation data due on Wednesday. The US CPI data release today is likely to influence the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut decisions and drive volatility across global financial markets, including the prices of gold and silver.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February 2026 CPI data on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
Looking back, the US CPI data for January was a sort of breather for the market and the US Fed. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, marking its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The all-items less food and energy index rose 2.5% over the last 12 months, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.
Whether the February inflation numbers continue to slide downwards remains to be seen. Markets expect that on a year-on-year basis, headline inflation is expected to remain near 2.4%, while the core inflation is forecast to edge down from 2.50% to 2.4%.
Oil prices have risen significantly in the past week, bringing renewed attention to the US CPI data.
The US inflation data for February arrives at a time when oil prices are significantly up after the strikes by the US-Israel on Iran. Brent crude oil price closed around $70, a day before the Middle East war began on February 28. As the week progressed, crude price touched a high of $119 before dropping to trade around $89.6 at around 1.11 pm IST on March 11.
Oil prices have risen by more than 30%, potentially putting pressure on the cost of products and services. That, however, will be obvious in the March US CPI figures, which will be released around April 10.
Meanwhile, Gold and Silver are holding their ground, showing no big movement in either direction since the war began. Gold rose to around $5,210 and silver is around $88 per ounce on Wednesday. Here’s why gold hasn’t spiked despite rising geopolitical risks.
Gold and silver prices are likely to remain under pressure if the US Fed continues to maintain rates without aggressively reducing them. When interest rates remain high, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding asset such as gold increases. There’s, investors will not show high demand for gold, which in turn will keep prices subdued.
If US CPI data stays sticky in February, expect some profit booking in gold and silver, unless new triggers emerge to support prices.
The next FOMC meeting is on March 17-18, where the rates are likely to remain unchanged. Currently, markets expect the US Fed to remain in the wait-and-watch mode and have lowered their expectation to just a single cut in 2026. However, the March US FOMC meeting will reveal the dot-plot and economic projections from Fed members, providing insights into future rates.
The economic projections from Fed members will likely account for the inflationary pressure arising from the ongoing war in the Middle East. Therefore, the press conference of US Fed chair Powell will be a keenly watched event for the market.