All eyes will be on the US CPI data for January to be released today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 is scheduled to be released on February 13, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time, 7 PM IST.

US CPI data is expected to show the Consumer Price Index rose 2.5% over the year in January, down from a 2.7% annual increase in December. If the January inflation print falls to 2.5%, it will be the lowest since May 2025. Core inflation is projected to decline to a 2.5% annual increase from 2.6% in December, marking the lowest rate since 2021.

If US inflation actually shows signs of cooling down, the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18 will be an interesting event to watch.

The debate centers on whether the US Federal Reserve should aggressively cut rates now, as signs of a weakening labor market emerge, or delay to ensure inflation is fully controlled, thus preventing a resurgence.

Currently, markets expect US Fed to remain in the wait-and-watch mode until July. However, the March US FOMC meeting will reveal the dot-plot and economic projections from Fed members, providing insights into future rates.

If January CPI shows a falling trend, at least the threat from tariff induced inflationary pressures may seem to weaken. For a large part of 2025, inflation remained sticky and far from the US Fed’s target of 2%, because of Trump tariffs.

Inflation rates declined in 2024 and early 2025 but reversed mid-year due to President Trump’s tariffs on most U.S. trading partners. However, key prices for gasoline and rent have remained stable or decreased, preventing a significant rise in overall inflation.

Lowering of interest rates has an impact not only on stocks but also on the dollar, gold and other assets. Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst at FXTM says, “This week’s US jobs report and CPI could prove decisive for markets. A solid NFP print may temper expectations of an April rate cut and offer the dollar some relief, while softer inflation data would reinforce the case for lower rates.

Gold continues to shine amid dollar weakness and shifting rate expectations, and a decisive break above $5,100 could trigger another bullish leg. With uncertainty around growth and inflation still high, volatility across currencies, equities, and crypto looks set to remain elevated.”

But, even if January US CPI inflation falls, there are other emerging threats to inflationary pressures in the economy that the US Fed may not want to ignore.

The tax cuts from the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” will soon take effect, increasing economic activity. Also, the additional stimulus from the Fed’s recent rate cuts, which reduced borrowing costs, may lead to some stickiness in prices. A drop in US CPI in January may be the last good news on inflation for the markets, for a while.