Jefferies has assessed the impact of RBI’s tighter lending norms and mapped it against its existing price targets for capital market stocks. In its report titled “RBI Tightening Lending Norms Affects Prop Traders & Exchanges”, the brokerage house said proprietary traders and exchanges will be the most affected, while AMCs and RTAs carry lower regulatory risks.
Based on Jefferies’ target prices and the latest market prices as of February 17, ICICI Prudential AMC offers potential upside of about 26%, KFin Technologies about 28%, Groww about 15%, CAMS about 16%, and BSE about 12%.
Jefferies on BSE: ‘Hold’
Jefferies has maintained a ‘Hold’ rating on BSE with a target price of Rs 3,050, implying an upside of approximately 11.80%.
In its report, Jefferies said, “We estimate that if 50% of prop trading volumes (ex HFTs) are affected by the RBI regulation, it could affect 10-12% of options turnover. This translates into a ~10% earnings impact for BSE.”
The brokerage added, “Prop traders, which include HFTs, account for ~50% of equity options premium turnover and 30% of cash turnover.”
It further said, “The company could look at offsetting some of this impact with a price increase (noting that BSE’s option charge is 7% below peers).”
Jefferies also cited risks including “further regulatory tightening on F&O market” and “other regulatory actions impacting op. margins of exchanges.”
Jefferies on Billionbrains Garage Ventures (Groww): ‘Buy’
Jefferies has a ‘Buy’ rating on Billionbrains Garage Ventures with a target price of Rs 195, implying an upside of approximately 15.55%.
On discount brokers, Jefferies said, “We expect a limited impact on retail brokers given they already provide 50% of collateral as fixed deposits for bank guarantees, and MTF books are mostly self-funded.”
Specifically on Groww, the report noted, “GROWW is a smaller player in the MTF market (2% market share) and uses its own equity to fund its MTF book, limiting the requirement for bank support.”
Jefferies added, “Although GROWW faces regulatory risks (55% of its revenue comes from options), we think it will be able to diversify these risks over the next 3 years.”
Jefferies on Computer Age Management Services (CAMS): ‘Buy’
Jefferies has rated Computer Age Management Services ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 850, implying an upside of approximately 16.03%.
The brokerage said, “We prefer AMCs (ICICI AMC) followed by brokers (GROWW) and RTAs (KFIN & CAMS) within capital markets, as both AMCs and RTAs carry lower regulatory risks and benefit from a structural shift in household savings.”
On valuation, Jefferies wrote, “We assume the mature MF business is trading at 27x FY27e EBITDA with 14% revenue growth, 50% margin, and sticky clients.”
It added that “non-MF businesses are being ascribed no value despite nearly 3 businesses reaching ~Rs400mn in revenue and three of the six businesses generating 20%+ EBITDA margins.”
The target price implies FY28e P/E of 31x.
Jefferies on ICICI Prudential AMC: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has a ‘Buy’ rating on ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company with a target price of Rs 3,800, implying an upside of approximately 26.16%.
The brokerage said, “We prefer AMCs (ICICI AMC)… within capital markets, as both AMCs and RTAs carry lower regulatory risks and benefit from a structural shift in household savings.”
Jefferies wrote, “PT of Rs3,800 based on 40x Mar’28E P/E.”
It also listed risks including “prolonged down-cycle in equity markets” and “inability to gain market share (especially in equities).”
Jefferies on KFin Technologies: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has rated KFIN Technologies ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,300, implying an upside of approximately 28.46%.
The brokerage said, “We rate KFin Tech Buy with a price target of Rs1,300 based on 45x Dec-27e P/E.”
It added, “Faster conversion of order wins (into servicing) in international markets & limited dilution in yields in domestic RTA business can drive re-rating.”
Risks cited include “a tighter cap on MFs, slower ramp-up in new segments, heightened capital market volatility.”
What has changed
Jefferies said the RBI’s new “Commercial Banks – Credit Facilities Amendment Directions, 2026” tighten collateral requirements for brokers and capital market intermediaries.
The report stated, “Bank guarantees will require 50% collateral, with 25% cash, and loans for Margin Trading Facilities (MTF) will require 50% cash margin.”
These changes come into effect from April 1, 2026.