NSE Nifty 50 may trade in the 15,500-15,800 range today on monthly futures & options expiry, while 34,500 will act as an important level for Bank Nifty.
NSE Nifty 50 may trade in the 15,500-15,800 range today on monthly futures & options expiry, while 34,500 will act as an important level for Bank Nifty. Yesterday, Nifty managed to recover from its support of 15,500 and ended the day tad above 15,700. Analysts expect some volatility on expiry day and advise investors to trade cautiously on Thursday. The overall trading range for Bank Nifty is expected to be between 34,000-35,000, said analysts. India VIX, the volatility gauge, spiked 3.47 per cent to 13.69 levels on Wednesday. “Any dip in the initial hour towards 15650-15600 should be used to buy ATM call options. But it’s advisable to lighten up around 15800-15850 as well,” Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst – Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking, told Financial Express Online.
On Nifty options, the maximum Call OI is at 15,800 strike with 1,33,169 contracts, followed by 16,000 strike price. While maximum Put OI is at 15,500, followed by 15,600. Call writing was seen at 15,700 and 15,750 strikes, while Put writing was seen at 15,500, then 15,600 level strikes. Call unwinding was at 15,950 and 15,900 strikes and put unwinding was seen at 15,000. For Bank Nifty options, the highest open interest on the call side in the weekly expiry is at 35,000, followed by 36,000 strike; while the highest OI on the put side is at 34,000-34,500 strike.
- F&O expiry outlook 23 September: Nifty support at 17500, Bank Nifty to continue to rally above 38000
- Market LIVE: Nifty nears 17750, Sensex tops 59550, new record high, Bank Nifty hits 38000; ITC top gainer
- Sensex posts record close, Bank Nifty tops 37650 on weekly F&O expiry day; Nifty to hit 18000 soon?
Rajesh Palviya, VP – Research (Head Technical & Derivatives), Axis Securities
Nifty as per the provisional data has witnessed Long Unwinding with a price cut of -0.17% and decrease in OI of 4.17 lakh shares compared with Tuesday, while Bank Nifty has also seen Long Unwinding with price cut of -0.71% & OI shedding of 3.83 lakh shares. The sentiment indicator PC Ratio (Nifty) is currently trading at 0.93 indicating neutral-to-positive bias. Nifty highest OI on the CALL side in the monthly expiry scheduled 29th July is at 15,800 (66.59 lakh) & 16,000 (64.64 lakh) strikes, respectively, wherein writing of 15.65 lakh shares and 11.60 lakh shares was witnessed at 15,700 & 15,750 strike indicating strong resistance zone at 15,800. On the PUT side highest OI is at 15,500 (51.47 lakh) & 15,600 (38.92 lakh) strikes; wherein writing of 8.60 lakh & 9.86 lakh share was seen at 15,600 & 15,500 strike, respectively, indicating a strong support zone. So, the most probable range for the weekly expiry is likely to be between 15,800 to 15,500.
In Bank Nifty, the highest OI on the CALL side in the monthly expiry is at 35,000 (22.19 lakh), & 36,000 (17.61 lakh) strike; while on the PUT side highest OI is at 34,000 (16.29 lakh) & 33,000 (11.23 lakh) strike, with 34,500 acting as a pivotal level for this monthly expiry. There has been addition of 17.42 lakh shares on CALL side & 14.52 lakh addition on PUT side suggesting that any sustain move on either side of this level will decide the trend in Bank Nifty. While on the writing front 34,100 put has seen writing of 2.77 lakh shares followed by 34,000 put writing of 2.47 lakh shares indicating a strong support zone; overall range for Bank Nifty is likely to be between 35,000-35,300 to 34,000-33,900.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst – Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking
Our markets started the week on a flat note and consolidated in a range on Monday. However, the weak global markets had an impact on our markets and hence, we saw some selling pressure on the following day. Nifty did not see any major change in open interest but Bank Nifty added fresh shorts on Tuesday which was an indication of some nervousness in the market. FIIs too have been selling equities aggressively this week and have formed short positions in the index futures too. This resulted in a sharp sell-off in the first half on Wednesday, but fortunately ahead of the weekly expiry, the index managed to recover from its support of 15500 and ended the day tad above 15700. Some nervousness in the first half led to a spike in India VIX which cooled off to settle around the 14 mark.
Looking at the movement ahead of expiry, there could be some volatility on the monthly expiry day as well and hence, traders should trade cautiously during the session. In the options segment, highest open interest is placed at 15800 call and 15500 put options which indicates a broad trading range for expiry. Any dip in the initial hour towards 15650-15600 should be used to buy ATM call options. But it’s advisable to lighten up around 15800-15850 as well.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services
Despite a volatile day and early weakness, the Nifty has managed to substantially recover from the low point of the day and end with a modest loss. Importantly, in the process, it has managed to defend 50-DMA as a crucial support on a closing basis. Near-similar Call OI is witnessed on 15800 and 15900 levels; both these levels can act as a strong resistance. Nifty’s behavior against the price level of 15700 will be crucial to watch on options expiry day (Thursday). Highest PUT OI stands at 15700 levels
Bank Nifty may exhibit limited upside; it has highest Call OI at 35000 levels. 34500 is likely to hold as support if the markets open positive and this level is defended, else, 34100 is another major support that holds maximum PUT OI.
(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. Financial Express Online does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)