Fears of global trade war in view of the recent protectionist policies introduced by Donald Trump-led US administration have taken over the entire world at present.
Fears of global trade war in view of the recent protectionist policies introduced by Donald Trump-led US administration have taken over the entire world at present. Not only these concerns have injected volatility in the global stock markets including that of India, investors are also worried about what stock markets have in store for them in the days ahead. Other than the concerns around possibility of a global trade war emerging, US bonds sell-off, unwinding of global quantitative easing and slowdown in China’s growth can also increase risk premium for the emerging economies, Nomura’s Rob Subbaraman told ET Now. “Emerging market investors can see glass as half full. February’s market wobble may well be a warnings shot across bow,” Nomura said. The global brokerage sees good reasons for an increased caution considering all these factors.
Meanwhile, economist Gita Gopinath rold ET Now that a full-blown trade war will have an impact on India. “ With the US slowing down as a result of trade war, India’s economy will also witness an impact,” Harvard University professor said. The concerns related to trade war have now begun to cement, and with tariffs being imposed, the complete scenario appears to be disruptive, she said. The full-blown trade war will not only impact the global trade but also the central banks, interest rates, inflation and other variables will be impacted, she said. It’s also not very much clear at present till what extend the trade war can be limited, she said.
She also said that such a trade war may impact India’s growth rate since the country is part of the global system. Even if the tariffs are not being imposed on the country directly, any slowdown in the world including the US will have an impact on India, she added. The problem related with non-performing assets (NPAs) is big and with fresh frauds being revealed in the public sector banks, much larger problem with respect to governance at these financial institutions is coming out, she said.
Earlier global brokerage Macquarie reported citing a research paper by Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) that Donald Trump’s trade war may hit the US economy hard and plunge it to recession.