With global crude oil prices in free fall through most of 2015, the World Bank has sharply revised downwards its forecast for oil price in 2016, at an average of $37 a barrel from $51 predicted in October, in the context of the continuing supply glut and low demand prospects from emerging economies.
“World Bank is lowering its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report from $51 per barrel in its October projections,” the multilateral lender said.
In this regard, the bank also scaled down its growth forecast for emerging and developing economies to 4 per cent in 2016, from an expected 4.6 per cent previously, and said the prediction was “subject to considerable downside risks in a fragile global environment”.
Explaining that the lower forecast reflects various supply and demand factors, the World Bank said “these include sooner-than-anticipated resumption of exports by Iran, greater resilience in US production due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and weak growth prospects in major emerging market economies”.
The bank forecast crude oil prices at $37 a barrel for 2016 by using an average of UK Brent, Dubai and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, equally weighted.
“Many of the factors underpinning the slowdown in recent years — including low commodity prices, weak global trade and slow productivity growth — are expected to persist,” the report said.
Besides, deteriorating growth prospects in many emerging economies were eroding their fiscal and monetary policy buffers, it added.
The Indian basket, comprising 73 per cent sour-grade Dubai and Oman crudes and the balance in sweet-grade Brent, fell on Tuesday at $26.63 for a barrel of nearly 160 litres, official data showed on Wednesday. It had touched exactly the same monthly price in June, 2001.
The price of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) basket of 12 crudes closed at $25.11 a barrel, marking a 13-year low, on Tuesday, compared to $25.58 on Monday, said the organisation’s secretariat said.
At Wednesday’s morning trade, WTI crude was trading down nearly 2 per cent at $30.86 a barrel, while Brent crude was down 1.35 per cent at $31.37 a barrel.
With OPEC deciding last December against cutting output, traders are betting the cartel is less likely to cut output now to prevent easy passage of Iranian crude into the market, particularly at a time of tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
In comments posted on the Iranian petroleum ministry’s website last week, Deputy Minister Roknoddin Javadi said Iran is determined to regain its market share, which collapsed after the international sanctions were imposed.
He said Iran plans to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels a day.