Sugar production to go up marginally: Indian Sugar Mills’ Association

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Published: February 26, 2020 3:30:54 AM

If the government continues with its buffer stocks of 4 million tonne in next year too, the net available sugar balance for sale will be around 6 million tonne, which is considered reasonable.

sugar, sugar industryMaharashtra is expected to produce about 6.2 million tonne in 2019-20 SS, as against 10.72 million tonne produced in 2018-19 SS.

The Indian Sugar Mills’ Association (ISMA) has on Tuesday revised slightly upwards the sugar production for the current season (October 2019-September 2020) to 26.5 million tonne compared to its earlier projection of 26 million tonne in November 2019. In the marketing year of 2018-2019, the production was at 33.16 million tonne.

ISMA said that it has procured the satellite images of cane areas in the last week of January 2020. The pictures have given an idea of the area that have already been harvested and those unharvested across the country, almost half way through the season. These images, trend of yields and sugar recoveries achieved till now, as also expected yield/sugar recovery in the balance period of the season were all discussed in the meeting of ISMA on Tuesday, where representatives of sugar mills from each producing state were present.

With an opening stock of 14.5 million tonne as on October 1, 2019, domestic consumption of 26 million tonne, exports of over 5 million tonne and the estimated production of 26.5 million tonne, the closing stocks as of September 30, 2020 is expected to be lower at around 10 million tonne, said an ISMA release. Already, about 17 million tonne has been produced by mills till February 15.

If the government continues with its buffer stocks of 4 million tonne in next year too, the net available sugar balance for sale will be around 6 million tonne, which is considered reasonable.

According to ISMA, there was an agreement that sugar production during 2019-20 SS would be slightly more than what was estimated by ISMA in November 2019. ISMA has accordingly revised its sugar production estimates upwards from 26 million tonne to 26.5 million tonne now during 2019-20 SS. This is after considering reduction of sugar due to more production of ethanol by way of diversion of B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice.

Mills in UP are expected to produce a total of about 11.8 million tonne in 2019-20 SS, which is almost similar to the output in the previous season.

Maharashtra is expected to produce about 6.2 million tonne in 2019-20 SS, as against 10.72 million tonne produced in 2018-19 SS. Based on our analysis, we expect higher yield from the balance sugarcane available for harvesting which is mainly in areas that are high yielding districts like Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli and Pune.

“The third major sugar producing state, Karnataka, is expected to produce about 3.3 million tonne against 4.43 million tonne produced in 2018-19 SS. We expect good yield for the balance cane yet to be harvested,” ISMA said.

There has not been any major changes in other sugarcane growing states. As per the second advance estimates, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Odisha and Uttarakhand are expected to produce about 5.2 million tonne collectively, which is almost similar to what was estimated by ISMA in its first advance estimates in November 2019.

As per LOI for ethanol supply in 2019-20 SS, contracts for supply of ethanol during 2019-20 SS made from B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice, is 61.63 crore litre and 10.60 crore litre, respectively. Another tender is under finalisation and is expected that some more ethanol supplies would be contracted, including ethanol from B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice.

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