1. Signs of revival: Monsoon deficiency declines to 4%

Signs of revival: Monsoon deficiency declines to 4%

First two months of monsoon likely to receive near normal rainfall

By: | New Delhi | Published: July 28, 2015 12:11 AM

The vigorous monsoon over Rajasthan, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal in the last few days has reduced overall rain deficiency to just 4% till Monday.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the quantum of average monsoon rainfall across the country during June 1-July 27 has been 398.2 millimetres which is 4% less than the benchmark of 415.3 mm arrived on the basis of a 50-year average shower.

With IMD and private forecaster Skymet predicting heavy rains over eastern, central and southern regions in the next couple of days, the quantum of rainfall received during first two critical months for monsoon (June-July) would be around the normal benchmark.

The near normal rains in June and July are expected to further boost kharif sowing. The area under various kharif crops — rice, pulses and oilseeds — rose by 26% till last week as compared to last year.

According to a Skymet statement, depression is seen over northeast Bay of Bengal, adjoining areas of West Bengal and Bangladesh and the system is expected to intensify into deep depression in the next 24 hours.

“Heavy to very heavy rain is expected to lash parts of west Madhya Pradesh, west and central Rajasthan, Gujarat, West Bengal and coastal Odisha and rains over Konkan & Goa region, including Mumbai, will pick up intensity once again from Tuesday. Karnataka and Kerala will also observe moderate monsoon showers,” the  statement said.

On the regional distribution, the north-west region has received 11% excess rainfall than normal benchmark while the central India has received 5% less rainfall than normal. The south peninsula has 15% less rainfall than normal so far while eastern and north-eastern regions have received 7% less rainfall than normal.

At present the key deficient areas are Gujarat (- 23%), Marathwada (-52%) and north interior Karnataka  (- 43%).
Regions, which have received more rainfall than normal so far include west Rajasthan (71%), west Madhya Pradesh (56%), east Rajasthan (28%) and Jharkhand (15%).

While June rainfall constitute 18% of the total rainfall received during June-September period, the showers during July (33%) and August (29%) would be crucial for kharif crop cultivation.

The IMD last month had revised downward its forecast of seasonal rainfall (June-September) for this year to 88% of a long-period average (LPA), from 93% reported in May. However, Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon, with showers at 102% of the LPA.

Besides, the Met department has also predicted that the rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of LPA during July and 90% of LPA during August. LPA is calculated on the basis of the average annual rainfall recorded between 1951 and 2000 for the June to September period.

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