This time too like 2014, the market experts are expecting a strong rupee with the coming back of BJP to power in 2019 which will lead to fall in gold prices for a short term.
Like 2014, when the gold prices fell severely as the rupee appreciated after election results, this time too the market experts are expecting a strong rupee with the coming back of BJP to power in 2019 which will lead to fall in gold prices for a short term. The election results will be announced on May 23 and the experts are expecting a fall in gold prices which will be positive for the gold buyers. “There is not a direct relationship between election results and gold. The rupee value impacts the gold prices. But the election results will lead to rupee appreciation, so we expect a fall in gold prices. The fall in gold prices would be a temporary phenomena. Any dip in the gold prices to Rs 31,600 or 31550 should be taken as a buying opportunity,” Amit Sajeja, Associate Vice President with Motilal Oswal told Financial Express Online.
“Rupee is stuck in a range for the last three to four months. Neither it is going above 71 nor it is going below 68.50. Even international gold prices are not going anywhere. So even the international gold prices will also depend upon election results as the rupee value will change. Spot gold has limited downside from here. It has got a support at 1270-1280 dollars. So largely it will be supportive for the gold prices,” Sajeja further added.
There has been a sharp correction in gold prices in the last one week. Rupee is strong even when crude oil prices are on the rise and the dollar index is strong amid ongoing geopolitical tensions on the back of hopes that the government may come with a good mandate. Equity is also correcting but still rupee is strong.
“Rupee will be stronger if the ruling government comes back to power with a good mandate which will be a little negative for gold. But because of the strong physical demand for gold we are not expecting a severe fall in gold prices due to appreciation in rupee. In next one week the gold prices are likely to be in a range of Rs 31,600 per 10 gram and upside 32,500 per 10 gram which is a good level to buy gold,” said Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Commodity.
Gold prices today fell by Rs 160 to Rs 33,170 per 10 gram in Delhi on account of muted demand from jewellers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. According to traders, sentiments remained bearish due to weak trend overseas, while easing demand from domestic jewellers also weighed on bullion prices.
On global front, spot gold was trading lower at USD 1,286.50 an ounce, while silver was down at USD 14.58 an ounce in New York. In Delhi, gold prices of 99.9 percent and 99.5 percent purity fell by Rs 160 each to Rs 33,170 and Rs 33,000 per 10 gram, respectively. Sovereign gold, however, remained stable at Rs 26,500 per eight gram.