By Bhavik Patel
Traders rushed into risky assets including gold and silver after the market reacted to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington, where he continued to focus on his remarks to slow the pace of upcoming rate hikes. COMEX gold finally breached the psychological barrier of $1800, as traders accumulated long positions due to weakness in US dollar. Gold gains however were also overshadowed by silver gains, which saw remarkable jump of 5.5% against gold’s gain of 3.2% in COMEX.
The market wanted to hear what it wanted to hear and continued to ignore the fact that the Federal Reserve plans to continue to raise interest rates throughout 2023 and possibly 2024, albeit at a slower pace. Market sentiment which was neutral to positive, has shifted to positive as Fed will slow the pace of upcoming rate hikes. This was confirmed, although market sentiment started shifting towards positive under the assumption that the Fed will slow the pace from 2 November when US inflation came softer than expected.
Today, the market will watch for non-farm payroll data. Although the data is expected to come highest in over 3 years due to cutbacks from IT sector, the background would certainly point to a softening in the labor market. On top of that, the ratio of number of vacancies to unemployed people is still too high to point to a weak labour market. Unless strong numbers come, we expect weakness in USD to continue because of soft data from labour market. This will be beneficial for gold.
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Gold again has come to the point where price has become overstretched and one should wait for dip to take fresh positions. The rally in gold in MCX from 8 November started from 50,600 till 53,200 where prices were far away from 20 and 50-day moving average. Then, the price corrected till 52,060 where it took support at 20-day moving average and again has shot off till 53,935. Now 20-day moving average comes around 52,518 so we expect prices to retrace back at least between 53,000-52,700 before fresh up move begins. Momentum oscillator RSi_14 is also at 69 showing signs of overbought so better to wait for some correction before taking fresh long position and avoid taking any position from current juncture. Any long positions can also be booked at current level. For next week, we would recommend to go long around zone of 52,700-52,500 for expected up move till 54,200 and stoploss of 52,000.
(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebull Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)