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Gold prices weaken on strong US dollar; expect bullion rates to trade under pressure this week

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down in the coming week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1833 per ounce and support at $1780 per ounce.

Gold imports in India surged to 120.4 tonnes during April-June quarter, as compared to 10.9 tonnes in Q2 2020, according to the WGC data.(Image: REUTERS)

By Tapan Patel

Commodity prices traded mixed with bullion prices witnessed a decline on a stronger dollar and strong equity indices despite of rising virus cases.  Crude oil prices ended in green following a strong recovery on higher demand outlook while base metals kept firm trading on-demand recovery and lower inventories. 

Gold prices traded weak with spot gold prices at COMEX ended over half a per cent down to $1802 per ounce reporting the first weekly loss in five weeks. Gold prices at MCX fell by 1.08% at Rs 47534 per 10 gram pressured by rupee appreciation. The spot rupee ended around 0.21% stronger against the dollar for the week. Gold ETF holdings continued to witness outflow as holdings at SPDR Gold Shares fell to 1027 tonnes from the previous week’s 1028.5 tonnes for the week. The CFTC data showed that money managers increased their net long positions by 5826 lots in last week.

Silver prices ended lower with spot silver prices at COMEX fell by 1.90% to $25.18 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver September futures fell by nearly 2% to Rs. 67024 per KG. Silver prices continued underperforming gold prices for the third week on mixed trends in industrial metals and stronger dollar. The CFTC data showed that money managers decreased their net long positions by 8431 lots in last week.

Bullion prices traded under pressure on stronger dollar and recovery in US bond yields. Gold prices kept lower trading range hovering near $1800 per ounce on mixed global cues. The rise in dollar index underpinned demand for safe-haven over growing virus cases. The precious metals also kept downside limited on dovish ECB stance after President Christine Lagarde said Thursday that the central bank won’t derail the recovery by withdrawing emergency support too early. The US 10 year treasury yields ended at 1.28% after falling to 1.25% during the week. The dollar index ended 0.24% up for the second straight week. The traders and investors will eye for FOMC meeting on 27-28 July to seek clarity over FED tapering. 

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down in the coming week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1833 per ounce and support at $1780 per ounce. At MCX, Gold August prices have near term resistance at Rs 48200 per 10 grams and support at Rs 47100 per 10 gram. COMEX silver spot has near term resistance at $25.80 per ounce with support at $24.60 per ounce. MCX Silver September has important resistance at Rs. 69500 per KG and support at Rs 65800 per KG.

(Tapan Patel is a Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC securities. Views expressed are the author’s own, please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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