"We expect some moderate price decline in the next three months in the vegetable oils under the lead of sunflower oil followed by palm oil and soyoil, probably by $100" per tonne, Mielke said.
Edible oil prices are likely to fall by a moderate $100 per tonne the rest of the year and accelerate their decline in the first half of 2022 as production increases, leading analyst Thomas Mielke said on Saturday.
Malaysian RBD palm olein prices could average $920 per tonne in the first half, down nearly 23% from the current level, Mielke, head of Hamburg-based analyst firm Oil World, told the Globoil India conference.
Argentinian soyoil could average $1,050 per tonne in the first half and Black Sea sunflower oil $1,040, he said.
“We expect some moderate price decline in the next three months in the vegetable oils under the lead of sunflower oil followed by palm oil and soyoil, probably by $100” per tonne, Mielke said.
Sunflower oil prices need to correct to regain market share after losing their edge to rivals because of higher prices this year, he said.
Global soyoil production could rise by 2 million tonnes in the year from Oct. 1 to 61.68 million tonnes, while sunflower oil output could rise by 3 million tonnes to 22 million tonnes, he said.
Palm oil output could rise by 3.5 million to 4 million tonnes in 2021/22, accelerating from the 1.7-million-tonne rise for the same period a year earlier, he said.
The benchmark crude palm oil prices have jumped nearly a quarter so far this year, rallying for a third consecutive year as a pandemic-induced labour shortage crimped output in the world’s second largest producer Malaysia.
After a rally in edible oil prices squeezed demand, especially in the developing countries, pent-up demand could emerge once prices correct, Mielke said.
China’s soybean imports are likely to rise soon and crushing could increase by 4 million tonnes in the next season, he said.