CAI’s current estimates for the North Zone, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are lower by 1 lakh bales each compared to its previous month estimate.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced its crop estimate for 2018-19, beginning October 1, 2018, to 315 lakh bales. Its previous estimate, released last month, recorded the figure at 321 lakh bales.
Again, the revised estimate released by the CAI for Maharashtra is lower by 2 lakh bales compared to its previous estimate last month. CAI’s current estimates for the North Zone, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are lower by 1 lakh bales each compared to its previous month estimate. Water scarcity in some states and uprooting of cotton plants by farmers in 70-80% area of cultivation without waiting for third and fourth pickings are mainly responsible for the poor yield this year, CAI president Atul Ganatra said.
The total supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to April is 314 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The figure consists of the arrival of 278.73 lakh bales till April 30, imports of 7.27 lakh bales till the same date and the opening stock at the beginning of season at 28 lakh bales.
Further, the association estimated cotton consumption from October 2018 to April at 183.75 lakh bales. The shipment of the crop for export purposes was estimated at 42.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each till April 30. Stock at the end of April is estimated at 87.75 lakh bales, including 40 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 47.75 lakh bales with CCI, MNCs and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).
The annual balance sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the season (till September 30) at 374 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This consists of the opening stock of 28 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season estimated at 315 lakh bales and imports estimated at 31 lakh bales — higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s imports estimated at 15 lakh bales.
CAI estimated the domestic consumption for the crop year at 315 lakh bales, lower by 1 lakh bales compared to its previous estimate made last month. CAI has estimated exports for the season at 46 lakh bales, lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carry-over stock at the end of the season is estimated at 13 lakh bales.
The crop committee of CAI met on Monday in the presence of 21 members. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the committee arrived at its April estimate of the crop for the 2018-19 season. The export projection for the season has been reduced from 47 lakh bales to 46 lakh bales on account of higher prices of the Indian variety and smaller crop size.
Last year, 69 lakh bales were exported — registering a 33% decrease in export this year. Imports have been projected at 31 lakh bales compared to last year’s 15 lakh bales. An estimated 278.73 lakh bales of the Indian variety have been received from October 2018 to April. Shipment of imports in the period are estimated at 7.27 lakh bales and export shipments are estimated at 42.50 lakh bales. The consumption by Indian spinning mills for these seven months is estimated at 183.75 lakh bales.