By Bhavik Patel
Oil prices which were down by 12% last week have managed to recover from the lows but still it is below 6000 in MCX. News of the Swiss central bank stepping in to save Credit Suisse and the energy ministers of Russia and Saudi Arabia meeting to signal a willingness to intervene if the collapse continued have halted the slide temporarily.
Many of the big banks like Goldman Sachs, Barkley, ING have slashed their oil price forecasts for this year following the plunge in prices. For Goldman Sachs they were previously expecting Brent to hit $100 in the second half, now they expect the international benchmark to only rise to $94 per barrel in the coming 12 months.
For 2024, Goldman analysts see Brent crude at $97 per barrel. Recession fears because of banking turmoil have already taken center stage but the recession forecasts focus on the UK, the EU, the U.S., and Canada, as well as Australia. There is zero talk about a recession in China or India. China and India are the top three consumers and if they grow, naturally they will consume more oil which is positive for crude oil price.
Also IEA believes the oil market is set to swing from a supply overhang in the first half of 2023 to a deficit in the latter part of the year as the economic rebound in China will push global oil demand to a record high. But it is too early to predict if recession will sustain or will fizzle. In the near term our outlook is still negative with neutral for medium and long term. If recession persists, then expect prices to trade in range only despite increasing demand from China and India.
MCX Crude Apr contract had made double bottom around 6000 and now that it has breached that level, 6000 is now resistance for the time being. On a daily scale, the trend still is negative with lower high and lower low. RSI_14 is at 40 so there is room on the downside. The current bounce we saw from 5300 to 5700 is purely on the back of short covering as fresh longs have not been added in the system. Any bounce near 6000 is again a good opportunity to go short with a stop loss of 6100 and expected downside target of 5600.
(Bhavik Patel, Sr. Commodities and Currency Research Analyst, Tradebulls Securities. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult a financial advisor before investing.)