The spotlight is on the commodity space today as the conflict across West Asia escalates. Amid the heightened geopolitical tension over the US and Israeli attack on Iran, commodity prices have seen sharp price action. Brent Crude has jumped close to $80/bl level while silver is hovering near $95/oz levels. Gold is holding steady above $5,300/oz.
So what is the outlook for commodities going forward? Analysts point to near-term risks
Outlook for crude
Anindya Banerjee, Head of Currency & Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, has said that crude oil prices are likely to progress rapidly in the near term.
“The West Asian conflict is likely to keep crude oil prices on the boil in the near term, as the risk of disruption — particularly any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — remains a live tail risk.” He added that Brent crude could spike towards the $80–85 zone.
“However, history suggests that geopolitically driven spikes tend to be sharp but temporary. As and when the ground situation in Iran stabilizes, risk premiums should gradually unwind, allowing prices to cool off from elevated levels,” he added.
American stockbroker Peter Schiff, in a social media post on X, has said that current oil prices still stand cheap given the present geopolitical scenario.
Schiff said that oil prices have seen a surge of over 30% in 2026, and the price action would be reflected in fuel prices at gas stations, and also in the Consumer Price Index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the US.
Energy prices form a significant part of the CPI basket.
“Energy markets are also responding, with crude oil prices rising on fears of supply disruption through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which further adds to risk-off sentiment and supports bullion interest,” Jateen Trivedi, VP – Research Analyst (Commodity and Currency), LKP Securities, said.
Outlook for Gold and Silver – Safe haven boost
Banerjee added that precious metals, gold and silver, are also likely to witness price surges driven by safe-haven flows. However, he added that geopolitical surges typically lack sustainability unless accompanied by structural monetary or macro shifts.
“Therefore, some cooling off after the initial surge cannot be ruled out,” the analyst added.
Forecasting a constructive view for precious metals, Banerjee said, “We continue to expect gold to move toward $6,000 by 2026 and silver to test $105 this year, driven by deeper structural themes rather than episodic geopolitical flare-ups.”
Jateen Trivedi, VP – Research Analyst (Commodity and Currency), LKP Securities, said that gold and silver may experience profit-booking after an initial spike of 3–6% if some diplomatic developments come into effect.
“Gold and silver prices are set to remain highly volatile with a gap-up in the opening session tomorrow as the Middle East conflict, involving renewed U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, continues to dominate global risk sentiment,” Trivedi said.
He added that elevated geopolitical risk can drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver and widely expects a gap-up opening for bullion markets.
“As global equities and risk assets come under pressure, capital tends to shift into precious metals, which act as a hedge against uncertainty,” Trivedi explained.
However, he noted that earlier moves have already pushed gold and silver prices higher in recent sessions, and this momentum could continue if the conflict intensifies further.