Volatility spiked in Thursday’s trade to a two-week high amid nervousness about ongoing geopolitical developments. The apprehension is high after US President Donald Trump warned Iran that ‌it must reach a deal over its nuclear program or “bad things” will happen.” Experts see 25,600 as the key resistance zone. 

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research of Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects markets to remain cautious in the near term, given escalating geopolitical risks and the possibility of oil supply disruptions. Any escalation involving Iran could impact shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which would be particularly negative for India given its heavy dependence on crude imports from the region.

Nifty key levels to watch 

The Nifty has slipped to early 2026 lows, and market experts see 25,300 as the next important support zone for the benchmark index. According to them, the Nifty’s resistance is in a range of 25,600-25,700, which coincides with the 50-day moving average (DMA) and continues to act as a key line of defence for the bulls. 

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities, “A strong reversal formation and a long bearish candle on the daily charts indicate further weakness from the current levels.

We are of the view that, as long as the market trades below the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 25,500, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the market could retest the level of 25,300. Further downside may also continue, which could drag the index to 25,200.”

“The bearish engulfing candlestick formed thereof has effectively ended the uptrend that has been on in the last few days. That said, the steepness of the fall may allow a recovery move, ideally towards 25580. Alternate scenario sees Nifty consolidating inside the 25450-180 region, with low likelihood of a further collapse today,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments.

On the flip side, above 25,500, the pullback move could extend to 25,600-25,650. The current market texture is volatile; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

The 25,600–25,700 zone has now transitioned into a critical demand pocket. This region also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and key moving averages, creating a strong confluence zone and an important inflection point for the index. 

“From a technical perspective, the index appears to be in a continuation phase, though the formation of a doji candlestick reflects limited directional movement. Despite this, the broader price structure points toward a gradual improvement in bullish momentum, with corrective declines being consistently absorbed,” added Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

However, a strong jump above 26,000 could accelerate buying interest, while any corrective dips toward the 25,600–25,700 range are likely to be viewed as opportunities to accumulate.

Further, the GIFT Nifty turned green an hour before the start of Friday’s trade.

Volatility Index shoots 10% in 1 day

On Thursday, India VIX jumped 10.12% to close at 13.46, highlighting rising uncertainty and nervous sentiment among market participants. Most experts believe that unless the Nifty sees a sustained movement above the immediate resistance zone of 25,600, stabilisation of market sentiment is unlikely. They pointed out that the momentum indicators are mildly bearish, with RSI around 46 and tilting downward, reflecting weakening strength. Overall, the bias remains negative to range-bound, with consolidation possible near the slope support zone.