Dalal Street will enter Wednesday’s session with nerves on the edge. After Monday’s sharp sell-off, where benchmark indices tumbled to multi-month lows, the big question is can the Nifty hold above the crucial 24,500 zone or if more pain lies ahead.
The impact of the intensifying US, Israel-Iran conflict has been swift and visible. Indian equities in the last trading session saw a broad-based sell-off as geopolitical worries rattled the confidence of many investors.
On March 2, the first trading session of the month, the Sensex plunged over 1,000 points, while the Nifty slipped sharply before recovering slightly from the day’s bottom.
Nifty outlook
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments said, “The recovery attempts that may be expected post downside gapped opening today need to sustain Nifty above 24500, inorder to discourage bears from regrouping. Else, expect 24000-23550. Do account for wild swings, given the spike in VIX on Monday to the highest level since June 2025.”
Markets gave up earlier gains – Key levels to watch
Technically, the Nifty’s recent fall has undone much of the gains seen earlier in the month. Analysts note that the index has erased the rally triggered by the early February US-India trade deal optimism. In effect, the market has retraced nearly a month of gains within days.
The Nifty is now hovering around the 24,600 mark, a level that previously acted as a strong support zone.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted, “Currently, the market is trading well below short-term and medium-term averages, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative. We are of the view that the current market texture is weak but oversold; hence, a technical bounce-back from the current level is not ruled out.”
He further added, “For day traders, 24750/80000 would act as a key support zone. As long as the market is trading above this, a pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could bounce back till 25,000-25,075/80500-80700. On the flip side, below 24,750/80,000 the market is likely to slip till 24,650 and then 24,500 on Nifty and 79,700 and then 79, 300 on Sensex.”
Experts advise caution
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One, highlighted that the recent drop has significant implications.
He said, “On the daily chart, the index has now erased the entire rally seen on 3rd February, which was triggered by the US–India trade deal announcement and had resulted in a massive single-day surge. With that event now fully negated, markets have effectively returned to square one after nearly a month of movement.”
Furthermore, he pointed, “At present, Nifty is once again hovering around the crucial Budget Day low of 1st February around the 24600 zone. How prices behave around the 24600–24500 support band in the coming sessions will be critical. A decisive break below this zone could confirm a major technical breakdown and potentially open the door for further downside in the near term.”
Bhosale also warned that even if a bounce occurs, hurdles remain, adding, “On the flip side, although prices are placed near strong long-term support, multiple overhead resistance levels remain intact. Until a clear reversal signal emerges, any bounce should be used cautiously to lighten long positions rather than initiate aggressive longs. The bearish gap left around the 25000–25,150 zone is now expected to act as an immediate and stiff resistance.”
Why the Middle East matters to Indian markets
The biggest worry for investors right now is crude oil. The ongoing conflict has raised key concerns about possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This is a critical shipping route through which a large portion of the world’s oil supply passes.
For India, this is crucial. The country imports nearly 90% of its crude oil needs.
Globally too, markets have reacted negatively. Moreover, investors are moving money into safer assets like gold and the US dollar, while equities across regions have seen selling pressure.
What Wednesday could bring
As markets open today, traders will closely watch overnight cues from global markets and crude oil prices. The 24,600-24,500 zone on the Nifty stands out as the immediate battleground.