Nifty witnessing extreme volatility, could retest 17800 resistance; Timken among stocks to buy

By Nagraj Shetti

After showing gradual upside bounce in the last couple of sessions, Nifty witnessed extreme volatility by moving into large intraday swing highs and lows on the day of Union Budget 2023 on Wednesday and finally settled with a loss of 45 points.
A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with long upper and lower shadow.

Technically, this pattern indicates high volatility in the market. The formation of long lower shadows in the last four daily candles signal presence of strong support at 17,400-17,300 levels and the market could once again show upside bounce in the coming sessions. The important support of 200-day EMA was into scene on Wednesday after a downside violation at 17550 levels. This is a positive indication.

The short-term trend of Nifty is highly volatile. Having moved up smartly from the lows in the last few occasions, there is a possibility of Nifty retesting the crucial resistance of 17,800 levels in the near term. Further sustainable upside could occur only above this hurdle.

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Stock Picks

Timken India

BUY | CMP: Rs 3190
After the range bound movement in the last one month, the stock price (Timken) has tried to move up in this week so far. The stock price is in an attempt of upside breakout of Rs 3200 levels. The larger degree of higher tops and bottoms is intact and the stock price is currently in an attempt of forming a new higher bottom around Rs 3000 levels. Volume has started to expand with upmove in the stock price and RSI shows positive sign. Buying can be initiated in TIMKEN at CMP (3190), add more on dips down to Rs 3070, wait for the upside targets of Rs 3425 and Rs 3600 in the next 3-5 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 3000.

GNFC FEB FUTURE

Sell | CMP: Rs 536

The stock price as per weekly chart was in a down trend over the last many weeks. We observe negative chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms over the period of time. The stock price is currently placed at the crucial support of Rs 520 and a decisive move below this area could open sharp weakness for the near term. Selling can be initiated in GNFC FEB FUTURE at CMP (Rs 536), add more on rise up to Rs 552, wait for the downside target of Rs 495 in the next 3-5 weeks. Place a stoploss of Rs 567.

(Nagraj Shetti, Research Analyst, HDFC Securites. Views are author’s own.)