By Rahul Shah
For the week, the indices are up more than 1% each to close fresh new high and have risen about 8% this year to outperform Asian as well as global peers. Strong FIIs inflow, rally across the global markets after dovish commentary by the US Fed and China announced to relax zero covid policy stance which have boosted the market sentiment. Sensex climbed up by 575 points or 1% to close at 62869. Nifty advance 183 points or 0.9% to close at 18696 against the previous week close after rallying 4% over the last eight days and touching fresh high of 18,887. Among the global markets US, Europe and Asian markets surged between 2-4% after the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s signaled a downshift in the central bank’s policy-tightening pace. However, November U.S. Job data came in stronger than expected which is a concern.
US dollar index falling to a 5-month low to below 105 and US 10-year bond yield around 3.45 is supporting the market sentiment. On the domestic front, November PMI data reported to 3-month low, Q2 GDP announced 6.3% in line with RBI projection, oil prices nearly 10-month low, FIIs over Rs 22000cr net buyers, the highest over a year, and 11% increased GST November collection have positive sentiment in the market. This week, the positive factor will be that the small and mid-cap stocks have joined hands with large-cap counters. Both midcaps and smallcaps soared between in the range of 2-3%. The index gained 3% during the month of November and 8% on Year to date. Nifty, realty, metal and IT Index gained 2-4%. However, auto index was subdued on account of a mixed bag of November monthly sales data.
IT Index surged this week due to favourable risk-reward and 2% surge by global IT major Index Nasdaq Composite this week. Metal stocks gained due to Dollar Index fell to a 5-month low, increased base metal price on LME and hope of improving China demand. Realty stocks witnessed bargain hunting and strong demand in tier 1 and tier 2 cities. As Nifty is just a few points away from its psychological 19k level, market would keenly focus on RBI credit policy along with US and European countries PMI data and GDP data in Europe. Moreover, market will closely watch state assembly election outcome in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh which would be announced on Thursday.
Markets might consolidate in a range after index surged to record high and cautiousness among investors ahead of a series of events. Moreover, US Fed to announce its credit policy on 14th December and traders are likely to be on watch mode till the US Fed’s interest rate outcome and its commentary on future direction. US Fed chairman’s dovish speech has led investors to already discount 50bps rate hike in its next policy meeting.
CMP: Rs 1442| SL: Rs 1400| Target: Rs 1560
Cummins India has given a breakout of flag pattern on the daily scale and managed to close above the same. It has formed a strong bullish candle that indicates buying interest and gave a highest daily close ever. RSI Oscillator on the daily and weekly scale are in bullish zone indicating up move. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for an up move towards 1560 with a stop loss of 1400.
CMP: Rs 1560| SL: Rs 1530| Target: Rs 1680
MCX has given a breakout of the consolidation of the previous 21 sessions and it has formed a bullish candle on the daily scale which indicates buying interest in the counter. RSI Oscillator on the daily and weekly scale are in bullish zone which will support the up move. Considering the current chart structure, we advise traders to buy the stock for an up move towards 1680 with stop loss of 1530.
(Rahul Shah is the Senior Vice President, Group Advisory Leader-PCG, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing)