FY18 revenue grew 52% y-o-y at Rs 7,750 crore, EBITDA was up 41% at Rs 1,400 crore and EBITDA margin was down 140 bps at 18.1%. Adj PAT was up 76% y-o-y at ~Rs 640 crore billion. DBL is delivering well on its strategy of executing projects ahead of schedule and booked early completion bonus of Rs 92 crore during the year.
DBL booked order inflow of ~Rs 14,100 crore in Q4 (up 128% y-o-y) and Rs 14,300 crore in FY18 (up 21% y-o-y). Order backlog at ~Rs 23,900 crore was up 36% y-o-y from Rs 17,600 crore in March’17. Order backlog at 3.1x of FY18 sales gives clear visibility for revenue growth of 20-25% over FY18-20. The visibility is further aided by government target to order 20k km (up 18% y-o-y from 17k km in FY18) of roads through NHAI/MoRTH in FY19.
Management expects FY19 order inflow at Rs 10,000-12,000 crore (down 14-30% y-o-y), revenue at ~Rs 10,000 crore (up 30% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin to be flat at ~18% with continued focus on execution to get early completion bonus of 1.5-2%. In Q2FY17, DBL sold its portfolio of 18 projects to Shrem group for Rs 1,600 crore. DBL has received cash of rs 570 crore in FY17 and expects the remaining during FY19.
DBL won Rs 10,500 crore of HAM projects in Q4FY18. These projects will entail equity investment of Rs 1,250 crore over the next two and a half years. This can be funded through internal accruals and expected cash accruals of R1,000 crore from Shrem towards consideration of BOT asset sale. We cut our FY19E/20E EPS to Rs 62/Rs 68 (vs Rs 66/Rs 74 earlier) due to higher finance cost on increased debt level. Revise TP to R1,216 (18x FY20E EPS) from Rs 1,338. Maintain BUY.