A sharp rise in crude oil prices is emerging as a key concern for paint companies, where oil derivatives form a large share of raw material costs. Brent crude has climbed above $116 per barrel, rising over 50% since March amid escalating tensions in the Gulf region following attacks on energy infrastructure by Israel and Iran.
The increase comes at a time when paint companies are already dealing with muted value growth and rising competition. Asian Paints has announced price hikes of 6–8% effective mid-April, along with additional increases across product lines, while Berger Paints has taken a more measured step with a 1% hike in its decorative portfolio, with more likely.
Against this backdrop, the latest quarterly performance of Asian Paints and Berger Paints shows steady volumes but pressure on realisations, even as margins remain supported by earlier soft input costs.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Revenue growth diverges despite similar volumes
Asian Paints reported Q3FY26 consolidated revenue of about Rs 8,867 crore, up 3.7–4% year-on-year, while Berger Paints reported revenue of about Rs 2,984 crore, growing just 0.3%.
Sequentially, Asian Paints’ revenue also grew about 3.9% over Q2FY26, indicating modest recovery through the quarter.
Berger Paints reported sequential growth of about 5.5%, reflecting improvement after a weak October impacted by extended monsoon conditions.
Both companies recorded similar volume growth. Asian Paints reported decorative volumes growing about 7.9–8%, while Berger reported standalone volume growth of 8.5%.
The divergence lies in value growth. Asian Paints’ decorative revenue grew about 2.8–3%, while Berger’s value growth stood at 0.4%.
Elara Securities said Asian Paints’ revenue of Rs 8,870 crore was 1.7% below estimates, indicating weaker-than-expected demand.
Berger’s revenue of Rs 2,984 crore was about 2.4% below estimates, pointing to similar pressure but sharper impact from mix and pricing.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Q3FY26 Scorecard
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Volume growth strong, but value growth lags
The gap between volume and value growth remains a central trend.
Asian Paints reported a volume-value gap of about 4–5%, with volume growth of 7.9% and value growth closer to 3–4%.
Berger Paints reported a wider gap of about 8.1% in Q3FY26, up from 7.7% in Q2, reflecting stronger downtrading.
This difference is visible in product mix. Berger saw higher contribution from economy emulsions, textures and tile adhesives, while Asian Paints maintained a relatively stronger premium mix.
Abhijit Roy, Managing Director & CEO, Berger Paints, said, “The value growth, relatively much more muted at 0.4%. Value volume gap driven by mixed shift.”
Roy added that over multi-year periods, volume growth has remained in the 8–10% range, while value growth has steadily declined due to pricing and mix.
Asian Paints indicated that the volume-value gap is likely to persist at 4–5% going forward, limiting near-term value growth.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Margins remain resilient
Asian Paints reported gross margins of 44.4%, expanding by about 197 basis points year-on-year, and EBITDA margins of 20.1%.
EBITDA rose about 8.8–9% year-on-year to around Rs 1,781 crore, while profit grew about 9.6% to Rs 1,217 crore.
The margin expansion was supported by raw material deflation of about 1.1%, along with premium mix and sourcing efficiencies.
Berger Paints reported EBITDA margins of 15.8%, flat year-on-year, with EBITDA at about Rs 472 crore.
Gross margins improved to 43.1%, up about 143–145 basis points year-on-year, supported by stable input costs and mix improvements.
Roy added, “Year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter expansion of gross margin, backed by improved product mix and stable raw material prices.”
Despite weaker revenue growth, Berger’s margins remained within its guided range of 15–17%, indicating cost control.
Asian Paints maintained higher margin levels due to scale advantages and stronger premium mix.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Demand conditions remain uneven
Demand conditions remained uneven across the quarter.
Asian Paints reported that October saw a decline in sales, with recovery in November and December.
The company indicated that rural markets outperformed urban markets, supported by favourable rainfall and housing demand.
Amit Syngle, Managing Director & CEO, Asian Paints, said, “Industry growth muted due to lower repainting frequency and shift in discretionary spends towards travel and hospitality.”
Syngle added, “Competitive intensity likely to stay elevated due to new players and consolidation among peers.”
Elara Securities said that delayed repainting cycles and lower discretionary spending on weddings and events affected demand.
Roy said, “Extended monsoon spillover into October impacted demand momentum.”
Roy also said that demand improved gradually from November through January, indicating a sequential recovery.
Berger Paints highlighted weakness in East India, where execution issues affected premium and luxury segments.
Asian Paints also pointed to lower repainting frequency and diversion of discretionary spending toward travel and hospitality.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Segment performance and growth drivers
Asian Paints reported strong growth in industrial coatings, with the segment growing about 16–17% year-on-year.
International business grew about 6.3% in value terms, driven by markets such as UAE, Sri Lanka and Ethiopia.
New products contributed about 16% of total sales, indicating continued focus on innovation.
Waterproofing and construction chemicals segments also reported strong growth, supported by housing demand.
Berger Paints reported double-digit growth in construction chemicals, waterproofing and wood coatings.
The company expanded its distribution network by adding over 2,500 tinting machines and increasing retail presence to over 1,800 stores.
Automotive coatings delivered high single-digit volume growth, while industrial coatings are expected to see double-digit growth going forward.
Berger also indicated planned capex of Rs 1,800–2,000 crore for new manufacturing facilities over the next 2–3 years.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Share price performance reflects growth concerns
Shares of both companies have seen declines over recent months, tracking slower growth and rising concerns around demand and competition. Asian Paints over the past month and about 5.99% over six months, while the stock has declined 19.72% year-to-date. Berger Paints over the past month and 19.60% over six months, with a sharper decline of 22.38% year-to-date and 16.07% over the past year. The steeper fall in Berger Paints reflects weaker revenue growth and a wider volume-value gap, while Asian Paints has seen correction largely on slower growth expectations and valuation compression.
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Outlook and management commentary
Asian Paints expects volume growth of 8–10% in the near term, with value growth remaining lower due to the volume-value gap.
The company maintained EBITDA margin guidance of 18–20%, despite rising competition and pricing pressure.
Berger Paints expects volume growth of 12–13% in FY27, with value growth of 7–8%.
Roy said, “High single-digit volume growth, while value growth remains muted.”
Roy said the company expects the volume-value gap of 4–5% to continue due to mix changes.
Berger maintained EBITDA margin guidance of 15–17%, supported by stable raw material costs and mix.
Asian Paints indicated that competitive intensity is likely to remain elevated, with increased use of trade incentives and regional strategies.
Syngle said, “Competitive intensity likely to stay elevated due to new players and consolidation among peers.”
Syngle added, “Recent competitor price hikes are artificial and ineffective due to high discounting levels in the market.”
Asian Paints vs Berger Paints: Brokerage views, targets prices
Brokerage views on Asian Paints remain mixed, with differing views on growth visibility and valuation.
Motilal Oswal on Asian Paints maintained a Neutral rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,950, compared with the current market price of Rs 2,209, implying an upside of about 33.5%.
Motilal Oswal noted that Asian Paints’ revenue grew about 4% year-on-year, which was below expectations, while decorative volume growth of around 8% also missed estimates. It said that although gross margins improved to 44.4% and EBITDA margins to 20.1%, demand recovery remained weak. The brokerage added that rising competition and slower demand led to earnings cuts of 1–3% over FY26–FY28.
Elara Securities maintained a ‘Sell’ rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,517, compared with the current price of Rs 2,209, implying an upside of about 14%, even as the rating remains negative.
Elara said Asian Paints’ decorative segment grew only 2.8% and overall revenue growth of 3.7% was below expectations. It noted that growth is increasingly dependent on trade incentives, rebates and tactical pushes, rather than underlying demand strength. The brokerage cut earnings estimates by 2.2% for FY27 and 4.9% for FY28, citing structural demand challenges.
Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 3,390, compared with the current price of Rs 2,209, implying an upside of about 53.5%.
Nuvama noted that Asian Paints reported EBITDA growth of about 9%, with EBITDA margins at 20.1%, which were ahead of expectations. It highlighted that premium segments, waterproofing and industrial coatings supported performance, while international business grew 6.3%. However, it also flagged risks from pricing softness and competition, leading to a 3% cut in earnings estimates.
Brokerage views on Berger Paints are relatively more constructive, though growth concerns remain.
Elara Securities maintained an Accumulate rating on Berger Paints with a target price of Rs 500, compared with the current market price of Rs 414, implying an upside of about 20.8%.
Elara said Berger Paints reported revenue growth of just 0.3%, which was below expectations, while volume growth of 8.5% remained strong. It highlighted that the volume-value gap widened to over 8%, driven by a higher share of economy emulsions and price corrections. The brokerage cut earnings estimates by 1.7% for FY26, 8.3% for FY27 and 7.4% for FY28.
Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Berger Paints with a target price of Rs 605, compared with the current price of Rs 414, implying an upside of about 46.1%.
Nuvama noted that Berger Paints’ revenue growth of 0.3% was in line with estimates, while decorative volume growth of 8.5% exceeded expectations. It highlighted that gross margins improved to about 41.2%, supported by stable raw material costs. However, it flagged concerns on the volume-value gap widening to 8.1% and weaker premium demand, leading to earnings cuts of 3–4% over FY26–FY28.
HDFC Securities maintained an ‘Add’ rating with a target price of Rs 560, compared with the current price of Rs 414, implying an upside of about 35.3%.
HDFC noted that Berger Paints reported EBITDA margins of about 15.8%, supported by stable input costs and improved mix. It added that the company continues to expand distribution and strengthen its presence in urban markets, while expecting moderate growth in the near term.
Conclusion
Asian Paints and Berger Paints reported similar operating trends in Q3FY26, with volume growth of around 8–9% but weaker value growth due to pricing pressure and product mix changes.
Asian Paints reported higher revenue growth and EBITDA margins of about 20%, while Berger Paints reported slower revenue growth but stable margins of about 16%.
Both companies continue to deal with rising input costs, uneven demand recovery and sustained competition, even as they expand distribution, focus on premium products and build adjacencies to support growth.
Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor.