Ambit Capital’s April derivatives data showed that the market’s upward move came with a sharp reduction in open interest and only marginal rollover participation. Nifty 50 closed the series at 23,996 with a 7.45% gain, while Bank Nifty rose 10.19%, yet both indices saw open interest decline by more than 32%.
Rollover data remained subdued. Nifty rollover stood at 71% compared to a three-month average of 72%, while Bank Nifty rollover came in at 79% versus 80% average.
Ambit Capital said, “Indices end the April series higher supported by Short Covering.”
The combination of falling open interest and below-average rollovers indicated that traders exited positions rather than built fresh exposure across the market.
Sun Pharma recorded the strongest rollover deviation
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. recorded the highest positive deviation in rollover compared to its three-month average among all stocks tracked.
The pharma sector itself reported rollover at 94% compared to 92% average, indicating higher participation at a broader level.
Ambit Capital said, “The Pharma sector witnessed higher rollovers when compared to its 3-month averages.”
The report also said that “MANKIND and ZYDUSLIFE have witnessed longs that are rolled forward into the new series.”
This combination of sector strength and stock-level deviation pointed to sustained carry forward positioning within pharma names.
ONGC rollover up 8% – Above historical average
ONGC recorded rollover at around 85% compared to a three-month average of 77%, marking an 8% positive deviation.
At the sector level, Oil and Gas rollover stood at 86%, in line with its historical average.
Ambit Capital said, “The Oil & Gas sector also saw rollovers at par with its 3-month average (86%). ONGC witnessed rollovers ~8% higher than averages.”
The stock-level divergence indicated stronger carry forward interest in ONGC compared to the broader sector.
Higher than average rollover- NHPC, Phoenix Mills and HDFC Asset Management Company, NHPC, Phoenix Mills and HDFC AMC were among stocks where rollover exceeded their three-month averages.
These stocks maintained rollover levels above historical benchmarks despite overall market participation remaining muted.
Ambit Capital said, “Stocks with the highest rollovers compared to 3-month average are SUNPHARMA, ONGC, NHPC, PHOENIXLTD and HDFCAMC.”
The data showed that carry forward activity remained concentrated in a limited set of names.
Reliance, BHEL and NTPC record highest rollover costs
Rollover cost for Nifty stood at 0.33%, while Bank Nifty rollover cost came in higher at 0.60%.
At the stock level, Reliance recorded rollover cost of around 0.66%, while BHEL and NTPC also saw elevated costs above 0.63%.
Ambit Capital said, “Stocks with the highest rollover cost are Reliance Industries, BHEL, NTPC, Nestle, and ICICI Pru Life.”
Higher rollover costs indicated that traders were willing to incur expense to maintain positions in these stocks.
IT stocks saw fresh short buildup
Technology stocks diverged from the broader trend.
Sector rollover stood at 90%, in line with its historical average, but the composition of positions shifted towards short buildup.
Ambit Capital said, “Within the Technology sector, HCL Technologies Ltd. and INFY added shorts during the series and can continue trading under pressure.”
The data indicated that traders increased bearish positions within the sector despite steady rollover levels.
Vedanta recorded one of the sharpest dip in rollover. Vedanta saw rollover at 57% compared to a three-month average of 73%, marking a 16% negative deviation.
The decline indicated that positions were not carried forward into the new series.
Ambit Capital’s sector data showed that metals rollover stood at 90% in line with average, which indicated that Vedanta’s decline was stock-specific rather than part of a broader sector trend.
Tata Consumer and Adani Energy clock weak rollover
Tata Consumer Products Ltd. recorded rollover at 75% compared to 90% average, indicating a sharp drop in participation.
Adani Energy Solutions and Nuvama also featured among stocks with the lowest rollover compared to their historical averages.
The data indicated that traders chose not to extend positions in these stocks.
FMCG rollover declined
FMCG sector rollover stood at 92% compared to 94% average, indicating lower participation.
Ambit Capital said, “Rollovers within the FMCG sector were lower than their 3-month average, suggesting existing shorts were not carried forward.”
Within the sector, Jubilant FoodWorks recorded 58.50% increase in open interest, indicating fresh long creation during the series.
Banking sector saw marginally higher rollover
Banking rollover stood at 94% compared to 93% average, indicating slightly higher participation.
ICICI Bank recorded rollover at 96% compared to 91% average, marking a 5% positive deviation.
Ambit Capital said, “ICICIBANK witnessed higher rollovers, which were likely shorts.”
The sector data showed a mix of long buildup and short covering, indicating no single directional trend.
Short covering dominated market behaviour
Across the 206 stocks analysed, 54% saw short covering, while 41% saw long buildup and only 3% recorded short buildup.
Ambit Capital said, “Long Buildup and Short Covering were dominant across most of the sectors.”
Infrastructure, Oil and Gas and Realty sectors recorded the highest share of stocks under short covering.
FIIs remained net short despite reduction in positions
Foreign institutional investors held net short positions of -1,70,000 contracts, compared to -2,64,000 contracts in the previous series.
Ambit Capital also recorded $4 billion in FII outflows during April. The data indicated that bearish positioning reduced but did not reverse.
Conclusion
Ambit Capital’s rollover data showed that carry-forward activity remained concentrated in a limited set of stocks even as the broader market moved higher.
Sun Pharma, ONGC, NHPC, Phoenix Mills and HDFC AMC recorded rollover above their historical averages, while Reliance, BHEL and NTPC saw elevated rollover costs.
In contrast, Infosys and HCLTech saw fresh short buildup, while Vedanta, Tata Consumer Products, Adani Energy Solutions and Nuvama recorded sharp declines in rollover participation.
The data showed that participation into the new series remained selective, with continuation trades limited to a narrow group of stocks.
Disclaimer: Investment analysis and stock-specific data provided in this report are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. As market conditions and derivatives data are subject to high volatility, readers should consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any financial decisions. This analysis is based on third-party institutional data and has not been independently verified for personal investment suitability.
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