The wireless industry’s adjusted AGR (TRAI reported AGR plus our estimate of captive NLD AGR attributable to wireless segment) rose 0.6% q-o-q to `306 billion in Q1FY19. Jio’s adjusted AGRMS stood at 23.5% while Bharti’s (including TTSL and Telenor) and Idea-Voda’s AGRMS stood at 33.3% and 36.3%, respectively. Essentially, big gains for Jio in Q1FY19 came at the expense of Idea-Voda while Bharti just about held its own. Sobering fact – Jio just delivered 14% q-o-q growth in revenues without needing the industry revenue pie to expand! This must worry the incumbents.
Our estimate of consumer spends (adjusted AAGR) rose 0.6% q-o-q to `306 billion in Q1FY19. This includes the adjustments for NLD revenues to make up for the understated nature of TRAI’s reported AGR numbers. On an ex-Jio basis, industry AAGR declined 3% q-o-q and 33% y-o-y to `234 billion. This is what the nub of the Q1FY19 TRAI revenue report really is – if Jio can grow its wireless revenue base by as much as `9 billion or 14% q-o-q without needing a price increase, there is no plausible reason for it to look at one till this equation works. Incumbents, on their part, face a tough choice given Jio’s declared pricing stance; the incumbents can choose to match Jio on pricing to close the relative performance gap but Jio’s response could mean industry revenue pie shrinks further; a lose-lose situation.
Overall industry adjusted AGR (AAGR) for Q1FY19 stood at `306 billion or `1.22 trillion annualized. Bharti’s AAGR stood at `95 billion, flat q-o-q and down 20% y-o-y. AAGR market share for Bharti (standalone) stood at 31.0%, down 413 bps y-o-y. Including TTSL and Telenor, AAGRMS was 33.3%, down 945 bps y-o-y.
Idea-Voda’s AAGR stood at `111 billion, down 27% y-o-y. Combined market share stood at 36.3%, down 858 bps y-o-y. R-Jio’s AAGR of `72 billion, +14% q-o-q, represented an AAGRMS of 23.5%. Jio’s reported AGRMS now stands at an aggregate 25.3% in Metro + A circles (highest 32.9% in Gujarat), 32.5% in the B circles (highest 42.6% in Haryana) and a 39.2% in the C circles (highest 43.5% in Himachal Pradesh).
On a reported basis, Idea-Voda’s combined AGRMS is above 50% now only in three circles – Maharashtra (53.9%), Gujarat (54.1%), and Kerala (57.5%).
Circle-wise leadership — Bharti now #1 in seven (five of which metros or A circles), Idea-Voda in eight (five of which B circles), and Jio in seven circles (no Metros or A circles yet).