Analyst Corner: ‘Neutral’ on Zee Ent, target price stands at Rs 475

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New Delhi | Published: January 17, 2019 2:26:39 AM

zee, zee entertainmentZEE expects to deliver better-than-TV industry ad revenue growth and low-teens subscription revenue growth in FY20.

Consolidated revenue grew 18% YoY to Rs 2,170 crore (in-line), driven by robust ad/subscription growth. EBITDA grew 27% YoY to Rs 750 crore (5% beat), with margin expanding 250 bp YoY to 34.8%. This, coupled with higher other income and fair value gains, led to a PAT growth of 50% YoY to Rs 560 crore (26% YoY adjusted for fair value gains).We expect revenue/ EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 14%/16%/20% over FY19-21 on the back of 15%/12% domestic ad/ subscription revenue growth.

We restore our rating on ZEEL (‘neutral’ v/s ‘under review’ earlier). Despite the upbeat outlook, we see uncertainty around promoter stake sale to strategic investor, its priorities on time horizon for returns from digital segment, and risk of overlapping businesses. Our TP stands at Rs 475, ascribing 20x (10% discount to three-year average) to FY21E EPS.

ZEE expects to deliver better-than-TV industry ad revenue growth and low-teens subscription revenue growth in FY20. (2) FY20 margins are guided at 30%+, despite investments in ZEE5. (3) The company is confident of announcing the buyer for promoter stake by Mar/Apr’19 (as guided earlier). (4) ZEE plans to increase investments in ZEE5, given the sustained traction in the digital business.

We expect revenue CAGR of 14% over FY19-21, led by 15/12% domestic ad/subscription revenue growth. Consistent uptick in viewership share and a higher contribution from ZEE5 should support ad growth, while higher penetration of TV and HD channels should drive subscription growth. We expect EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 16%/20% over FY19- 21, factoring in 30% (Rs 950 crore) increase in content cost (traditional + digital).
We restore our rating on ZEEL (v/s under review earlier). Despite the upbeat outlook, we see uncertainty around the promoter stake sale to a strategic investor, its priorities on time horizon for returns from the digital segment, and the risk of overlapping businesses. We now have a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock with a target price of `475, ascribing 20x (30% discount to one-year average) to FY21E EPS.

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