Analyst corner: Drug makers see mixed sales trend in Q1

Published: July 10, 2019 2:06:15 AM

In this report, we pull in data on key molecules of several pharma companies in an attempt to gauge the sales progress and ramp up in prescriptions through Q1FY20.

Mupirocin, a key contributor for Glenmark, had a stock out situation in Q4FY19; albeit, numbers for April and May show sales limping back. (Representational Image)Mupirocin, a key contributor for Glenmark, had a stock out situation in Q4FY19; albeit, numbers for April and May show sales limping back. (Representational Image)

By Yes Securities

In this report, we pull in data on key molecules of several pharma companies in an attempt to gauge the sales progress and ramp up in prescriptions through Q1FY20.

Apart from small molecules, we also look biosimilar offtake and highlight interesting data on Pegfilgrastim sales in the first two months of the quarter. We begin our assessment with Ilumya, the most important specialty brand for Sun; Ilumya volumes in both retail and institutional channels have picked up since March 2019, though growth trajectory has eased from April.

Notably, scanning the competitive landscape, we find Taltz (Eli Lily) institutional and retail sales have surged 66% and 28%, respectively, between March and May 2019. AbbVie debuted its IL-23 brand Skyrizi, which is already doing 5x the retail prescriptions of Ilumya in May 2019 and 10% of Tremfya, another IL-23-based MAB and brand of J&J, in the first month of sales.

Mupirocin, a key contributor for Glenmark, had a stock out situation in Q4FY19; albeit, numbers for April and May show sales limping back. Alkem: Mycophenolate prescriptions halted their decline in May even as Vista Pharma continues to ramp up with 20% m-o-m surge in May 2019.

Copaxone: Teva had commented during its Q1CY19 conference call it expects Copaxone to level off at Q1 level, which precludes any further erosion. A look at previous two months of Mylan/Natco performance shows Copaxone sales have been flat in both retail and institutional channels after a bump up from March; indeed, Teva’s 40mg volume in institutional sales has increased in April/May after several months of decline. This translates in to a difficult operating environment for Dr Reddys’ potential generic Copaxone entry which is, anyway, unlikely in CY19.

Lupin’s Solosec prescription and sales trends suggests brand is unlikely to cross $25 mn in annualised sales, at least as per data provided by Symphony; prescription trends remain gentle sloping as yet and could disappoint in FY20.

Suboxone: Dr Reddys’ share has increased to 23% in the retail total prescriptions followed closely by Alvogen at 21%; the authorised generic from Sandoz has nearly 50% share in the 8mg-2mg sublingual generic market.

Shifting focus to biosimilars, Biocon’s Fulphila garnered 20% share but Coherus’ Udenyca surprisingly moved past Biocon with ~24% share of the Pegfilgrastim syringe market, despite the fact Coherus launch was six months after that from Biocon.

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