The stock is trading at 25x/21x FY20/21F PE, which we find quite attractive, given our forecast of 18% EPS CAGR (FY19-21F) and potential upside from Zee5.
We hosted Zee Entertainment at our India Corporate Day in Hong Kong on December 3 and 4, 2018. The bulk of the investor queries were focused on the promoter’s plan to sell up to a 20% stake.
Management indicated there are considerable opportunities in digital in the Indian market and that this can be capitalised with the right partner, hence its stake sale intent announcement to attract a strategic buyer. Management maintains its target of 30% of revenues from the digital segment in five years. In traditional business, advertisement and subscription growth remains healthy. There were also queries on high pledging (60% of promoter shareholding).
Management mentioned Essel Group is in various stages of discussion on the liquidation of the power transmission and solar assets, and it is working on the liquidation of the road assets. If these materialise, it should bring down most of the pledging. We note the company’s digital offering, Zee5, has already received an encouraging response in 2Q, and has the potential to ramp up substantially as telco deal revenues come through in 2HFY19F. Ad growth outlook remains healthy and we expect 17%/12% ad/subscription revenue CAGR for Z over FY18-21F. Higher success in digital could be an upside to our estimates.
The stock is trading at 25x/21x FY20/21F PE, which we find quite attractive, given our forecast of 18% EPS CAGR (FY19-21F) and potential upside from Zee5. We maintain our Buy recommendation and Rs 627 TP (30x P/E on average FY20F-21F EPS) on the stock.
On the domestic advertising segment, there is no change in outlook. The ad growth outlook remains healthy.On the subscription side, growth remains strong.