Analyst corner: Ashok Leyland poised for 12% FY19 volume growth

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Published: November 15, 2018 1:18:22 AM

Ashok Leyland has outperformed the Nifty Auto Index by 23% over the last 12 months as truck volumes have been strong and AL has maintained market share.

Discounts currently remain high (around 15% of ASPs), but we expect them to fall sharply in F20 as BS6 prebuying kicks in and capacity utilisation inches up.

Ashok Leyland has outperformed the Nifty Auto Index by 23% over the last 12 months as truck volumes have been strong and AL has maintained market share. With 95%-plus sales on finance, NBFC liquidity crunch is a near-term risk, but we expect big banks and NBFCs to support mortgage- backed auto sales. Thus, we maintain our 12% F19 volume growth forecast.

Discounts currently remain high (around 15% of ASPs), but we expect them to fall sharply in F20 as BS6 prebuying kicks in and capacity utilisation inches up. With 70% of PM2.5 pollutant coming from trucks, we believe the government will implement a scrappage scheme in F21 and thus support truck sales.
Ashok Leyland posted Y-o-Y revenue, EBITDA,and net income growth of 25%,32%,and 40%, respectively. Net income was 10% below our estimates — other income for the quarter was lower and interest expenses inched up.

CEO resignsaftera longsuccessful stint: After 14 years, CEO & MD of Ashok Leyland Vinod Dasari is resigning to pursue his personal interests. He will stay on through March 2019 to ensure a smooth transition. Chairman Dheeraj Hinduja will step in as executive chairman to assist in business continuity and a seamless transition.

The company maintained its 15% MHCV growth outlook for F19. ALhas seen some impact of slowdown in financing from NBFCs but expects large banks and NBFCs to step in. 45% of sales are to the construction sector and that segment’s growth is likely to remain strong. Inventory was atnormal levels,around 16-18 days at dealers’end. MHCVs were 69% of 2Q revenue mix.

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