Mindtree’s strong digital competencies, deal flow from the advisory channel and favourable portfolio mix will ensure strong growth with improving margins.
Mindtree reported excellent 6.9% q-o-q revenue growth to $241.5 m. Revenue growth was broad-based across most verticals and geos. Mindtree’s strong digital competencies, deal flow from the advisory channel and favourable portfolio mix will ensure strong growth with improving margins. Areas which Mindtree can work on are better distribution of growth profile and increasing scale of relationships beyond the top client. We raise FY19-21e EPS by 1-2%. We raise TP to Rs 1,115 (Rs 1,105 earlier), valuing the stock at 20X June 2020e earnings. Add 8.2% c/c growth; top client contributes 43% to incremental revenues: Revenues grew 20.7% y-o-y powered by—(i) strong 16.4% growth in top client and (ii) ex-top client revenues grew 4.7% q-o-q to $194.6 mn (6% in c/c). Ebitda margin declined 200 bps q-o-q to 14.1% and was consistent with our expectation.
Better distribution of growth can lend greater comfort on sustainability: Undoubtedly Mindtree’s growth was outstanding. However, there is scope for improvement. We highlight two of them—(i) the top client accounted for 19.4% of overall revenues. Even as we recognise the huge runway of opportunity in this client, concentration is getting into uncomfortable zones and (ii) distribution of growth.
Maintain positive stance: On the back of a strong Q1FY19, we raise FY19-21e revenue estimates by 1-2%. We expect Mindtree to deliver strong 17.3% revenue growth in FY19. Leadership in growth along with confidence on its sustainability deserves premium multiples.