Global investment banking firm Jefferies has rated five stocks ‘Buy’ across defence, insurance, energy and information technology where its latest target prices imply upside of 33% to 43%. The global investment bank points to different factors behind the five calls. HAL is seeing renewed attention around Tejas Mk1A deliveries and its large order book, while ICICI Lombard is expected to benefit from changes in insurance distribution rules and its service-led model. The energy calls come as crude transportation costs and refining margins remain elevated, while Newgen Software Technologies is among the mid-sized information technology names covered by Jefferies.
Jefferies on Hindustan Aeronautics: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has set a target price of Rs 6,800 for HAL, implying 43% upside.
The immediate focus for Hindustan Aeronautics is the delivery of Tejas Mk1A aircraft. The company’s chairman and managing director Ravi Kota said in media interviews that he was confident of delivering the aircraft during the year after the company completed the Tejas Mk1 trainer aircraft contract on September 18, 2026.
Jefferies said 24 Tejas Mk1A airframes are ready, with General Electric engines installed and aircraft testing completed. The company has received 10 engines from General Electric, while radar and missile integration and certification is 90-95% complete. The brokerage expects 10 aircraft to be delivered this year, compared with its earlier assumption of five.
Jefferies said, “90-95% of radar and missile integration/certification completed for Tejas Mk1A: CMD mentioned in his media interviews with News9 and The Tribune dated 18 Sept 2026 that testing is on to ensure requirements are in place for Tejas Mk1A deliveries to begin. 24 airframes are ready, where a GE engine has been put in and aircraft has been tested.”
The brokerage said Tejas Mk1A accounts for 43% of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited’s order book and could be an important trigger as delivery execution becomes visible. The company has a Rs 2.55 lakh crore order book, equivalent to 7.7 times FY26 revenue, and a Rs 1.8 lakh crore pipeline.
Jefferies expects revenue to grow 14% in both FY27 and FY28, followed by 15% growth in FY29 and FY30. Adjusted profit after tax is estimated to rise from Rs 9,108 crore in FY26 to Rs 16,473 crore by FY30.
Jefferies on ICICI Lombard General Insurance: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has set a target price of Rs 2,150 for ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, implying 42% upside.
Jefferies’ September 30 report follows ICICI Lombard’s Digital Day, where management discussed proposed insurance distribution regulations, service offerings, technology investment and motor third-party provisions.
The proposed regulations include a lower expense-of-management threshold and greater emphasis on compliance. Jefferies said these changes could reduce commission-based competition and potentially benefit ICICI Lombard given its service offering, brand awareness and relationships with garages.
Jefferies said, “Creating a service moat: ICICIGI is focusing on building a service suite to increase retention, rather than competing on price or commissions. This includes: 1) 30-minute roadside assistance; 2) doorstep cashless assistance; 3) weather alert system for businesses.”
Digital customer servicing has expanded sharply. Jefferies said 71% of customer servicing was conducted digitally in the first quarter of FY27, compared with 20% in FY23, while motor and health net promoter scores remained at 75 and 70 respectively.
The company has also built a team of 600 developers and engineers. Jefferies expects technology spending to remain at 1.5-2% of the combined ratio, while ICICI Lombard is guiding to 17-20% return on equity through FY29.
The brokerage forecasts gross direct premium income and profit after tax to grow at 13% compound annual growth rates between FY26 and FY29. It expects return on equity of 17-18% in FY28-29.
Jefferies on ONGC: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has set a target price of Rs 310 for Oil And Natural Gas Corporation, implying about 35.4% upside.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited is the highest-upside stock among the energy names selected for this list. Jefferies’ September 30 Energy Market Letter comes as crude transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and tanker costs have risen sharply.
Commercial vessel movement through the Strait declined 10% week-on-week over the seven days preceding the report and was running at mid-single-digit levels. Jefferies said the divergence between physical and paper crude was around US$16 per barrel, with physical crude trading at US$119 per barrel.
Jefferies said, “Freight rates jump sharply: Freight rates increased 7% w/w and are up ~8x from the start of the conflict (Ex 4). Cost of hiring an oil tanker is up ~3x to US$ 1mn/day since the start of the conflict.”
Refining margins have also remained elevated. Singapore gross refining margins averaged US$14.1 per barrel in the second quarter of FY27, while gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel cracks were at US$37, US$63 and US$61 per barrel respectively at the time of the report.
Jefferies also noted that Russian Urals crude was trading at a premium of US$7 per barrel to Brent, compared with a discount of US$14 per barrel at the end of February. The brokerage expects the normalisation of supply chains to take time, which could support refining margins through FY27.
Jefferies on BPCL: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has set a target price of Rs 410 for Bharat Petroleum Corporation, implying about 34.9% upside.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is the second energy stock in the five-stock list. Jefferies’ valuation table places the company at 8.8 times FY27 enterprise value to EBITDA and 17.6 times FY27 price-to-earnings. The corresponding enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple falls to 4.5 times by FY29.
The company’s earnings are being assessed against a refining market where margins remain elevated. Jefferies said supply disruptions, including damage to refining facilities in Russia, had reduced Russian exports and tightened the middle-distillates market.
Jefferies said, “Refining margins increased w/w and remain elevated: Singapore GRMs averaged US$ 14.1/bbl over 2QFY27. Gasoline/ diesel/ aviation fuel cracks are prevailing at US$ 37/ US$ 63/ US$ 61 per bbl currently.”
At the same time, fuel marketing remains a pressure point for oil marketing companies. Jefferies estimated that oil marketing companies were making losses of Rs 11 per litre on petrol and Rs 16 per litre on diesel based on 15-day average pricing, although the losses were lower than those recorded in the first quarter of FY27.
The report also noted a sharp recovery in petrochemical margins. Average polyethylene, polypropylene and polyethylene terephthalate margins were up 84% from February-end, although the report specifically linked the benefit to Reliance Industries’ oil-to-chemicals business.
Jefferies on Newgen Software Tech: ‘Buy’
Jefferies has set a target price of Rs 630 for Newgen Software Technologies Limited, implying 33% upside.
Newgen Software Technologies Limited is the fifth stock in the list and the highest-upside ‘Buy’ among the selected information technology names. Jefferies’ September 30 information technology preview expects the sector to deliver a subdued second quarter of FY27, with mid-sized companies expected to perform better than large information technology companies.
Across its coverage, Jefferies expects aggregate revenue to grow 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in constant-currency terms and 4% year-on-year in constant-currency terms during the second quarter of FY27. Organic growth is expected at only 0.8% quarter-on-quarter.
Jefferies said, “Soft growth in a seasonally strong quarter: During 2QFY27, we expect overall revenues for our coverage to grow at 1.7% QoQcc/4.0% YoYcc led by acquisitions. On an organic basis, growth will be low at 0.8% QoQcc/1.9% YoYcc.”
The brokerage expects large information technology companies to deliver their weakest second-quarter growth in three years, while mid-sized companies are expected to post stronger growth. Among the mid-sized companies covered, Coforge is expected to lead on organic growth, while IKS Health is expected to lead overall growth because of acquisitions.
Jefferies expects aggregate EBIT margins to improve by 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 20% during the second quarter. Currency movements are expected to support margins, particularly for companies with greater exposure to Europe.
The brokerage’s broader information technology view remains cautious on near-term demand. It expects artificial intelligence-led deflation to continue affecting the sector and sees macro pressures from higher oil prices and interest rates as additional constraints on demand.
Jefferies’ five highest-upside ‘Buy’ stocks
The five selected stocks cover four different parts of the market, with each company’s case resting on a different earnings driver.
| Company | Rating | Target price | Upside |
| HAL | ‘Buy’ | Rs 6,800 | 43% |
| ICICI Lombard | ‘Buy’ | Rs 2,150 | 42% |
| ONGCd | ‘Buy’ | Rs 310 | ~35.4% |
| BPCL | ‘Buy’ | Rs 410 | ~34.9% |
| Newgen Software | ‘Buy’ | Rs 630 | 33% |
For HAL, the key near-term test is the execution of Tejas Mk1A deliveries against a large existing order book. ICICI Lombard’scase rests on premium growth, claims performance, proposed distribution changes and its service and technology investments.
The two energy companies are being covered amid an unusual combination of crude transportation disruption, elevated freight costs and stronger refining margins. Newgen Software meanwhile, is being covered against a weaker information technology demand environment in which Jefferies expects mid-sized companies to show stronger growth than large information technology companies.
| Company | Main factor cited in Jefferies’ research |
| Hindustan Aeronautics Limited | Tejas Mk1A execution and Rs 2.55 lakh crore order book |
| ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited | Distribution regulations, service offerings and digital servicing |
| Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited | Crude-market conditions and elevated energy-market volatility |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited | Refining margins and energy-market conditions |
| Newgen Software Technologies Limited | Mid-sized information technology growth |
Disclaimer: This article is based solely on the Jefferies research reports provided for this story, dated September 30, 2026. The ratings, target prices, upside calculations, financial estimates, forecasts and analytical views attributed to Jefferies and its analysts are taken from those reports and have not been independently verified. The upside percentages for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited are calculated using the reference prices and target prices stated in the Jefferies energy report. Actual market prices, financial results, commodity prices, regulatory conditions, project execution and company performance may differ from the assumptions contained in the reports. The research material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.