Rainfall forecast: More showers during August and September likely, says IMD

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August 02, 2021 2:56 PM

"Delhi is likely to receive normal rainfall in August. It will be 95 to 106 per cent of the long-period average," said Kuldeep Srivastava, head of the IMD's regional forecasting centre.

rainfall in indiaAs per the extended range forecast of the weather bureau, the rainfall will start to decline from the fourth week of the month, potentially delaying monsoon withdrawal that starts normally from September 17 from northwest India before complete withdrawal on October 15.

After witnessing uncharacteristically heavy rains and an irregular weather pattern in July, Delhi is likely to receive normal rainfall in August, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. Delhi gets the maximum rainfall in July and August. Normally, the city receives 210.6 mm and 247.7 mm rainfall in July and August, respectively.

“Delhi is likely to receive normal rainfall in August. It will be 95 to 106 per cent of the long-period average,” said Kuldeep Srivastava, head of the IMD’s regional forecasting centre. “Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 per cent of the long-period average),” the IMD said in a statement.

The spatial distribution suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is likely over some areas of northwest India, it said. The capital gauged an unusual 507.1 mm rainfall this July, which was nearly 141 per cent above normal. It was also the maximum rainfall recorded in July since 2003 and the second-highest ever.

In 2013, Delhi had received 340.5 mm rainfall. The all-time record is 632.2 mm precipitation in July 2003, according to the IMD. Overall, Delhi has gauged 582.8 mm rainfall so far since June 1, when the monsoon season starts, against the normal of 295.6 mm — an excess of 97 per cent.

The city witnessed 16 rainy days in July despite the monsoon arriving over two weeks after the usual date, making it the most-delayed in 19 years. Of these 16 rainy days, the capital received heavy rainfall on three occasions — July 18-19 (69.6 mm), July 26-27 (100 mm) and July 29-30 (72 mm). Most of the 100 mm rainfall recorded on July 26-27 occurred in just three hours. It was also the maximum rainfall in 24 hours in the month of July in eight years.

In 2013, Delhi had received 123.4 mm rainfall on July 21. Heavy rainfall events were also observed at the Ridge observatory on July 15 (107.4 mm) and the Palam observatory on July 20 (67.6 mm) and July 28 (68.7 mm). Rainfall recorded below 15 mm is considered light, between 15 mm and 64.5 mm is moderate, between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm is heavy, between 115.6 mm and 204.4 mm is very heavy and anything above 204.4 mm is considered extremely heavy rainfall.

The IMD measures monsoon performance in five categories — large excess (rainfall is above 60 per cent of normal), excess (20 per cent to 59 per cent more than average), normal (minus 19 to 19 per cent of normal), deficit (minus 20 per cent to minus 59 per cent) and large deficit (60 per cent below normal).

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