Given the current hospitalisation rates, Maharashtra only has a week before it runs out of other infrastructure.
Although Mumbai has been able to curb the spread of infections owing to timely quarantining of individuals, the city’s infrastructure despite additions is not able to cope with rising cases and hospitalisation. Amongst the three big cities that are recording over 1,000 cases daily, Mumbai has the highest hospitalisation rates at 32.5%; Delhi and Chennai are a much lower 21.8% and 27%.
However, what is worrying for the maximum city is the shortage of critical care infrastructure. Data released on June 16 showed that Mumbai has near 100% utilisation with only 1 ICU bed left in the city. In terms of ventilators as well, capacity utilisation was 98% with only 11 of the 532 ventilators vacant. Although the pressure on dedicated Covid health centres, which cater to mild cases, had eased, dedicated Covid hospitals, assigned to serious and high-risk patients, were still operating at 92% capacity. This is when the city recently added 4,000 beds via its jumbo facilities.
The fact is that Mumbai’s health infrastructure hasn’t been able to keep pace with rising infections in the city. Infections increased 2.8 times in the last one month, but hospital bed capacity could only go up by 1.8 times; ICU beds increased by 2.2 times, ventilators increased by 1.5 times during this period. This may also be the reason that the death toll in the city rose 2.8 times during this period.
Besides, an analysis of data shows that ventilator and ICU utilisation in the city has been going up since May 28 and the state did little to ready more infrastructure in time. On May 28, 72% of ventilators and 99% of ICU beds were in use. By June 3, 85% and 98% of ventilators and ICU beds were in use; this increased to 98% for ventilators and near 100% for ICU beds on June 15.
Maharashtra still has over 28,000 active cases and is adding over 1,000 cases each day. Given the current hospitalisation rates, it only has a week before it runs out of other infrastructure.