COVID-19: Warning signs! Why West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand are the states to watch

By: |
April 30, 2020 6:58 PM

West Bengal seems to be following the Maharashtra numbers with a three week lag. West Bengal also has the highest rate of doubling Covid-19 cases across the country.

UV lamps demand increases increase during coronavirus pune based company have flood of ordersReproduction number is the average number of patients who are infected by an already infected patient. (Representational Image)

COVID-19: Warning signs indicate West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand are three states to watch, IE reported. Active hotspots in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi remain in focus as the country chalks out the strategy to ease restrictions after the second phase of the lockdown gets over on May 3. However, if data models are to be believed then a big trouble seems to be brewing in the Eastern states of the country as well. Although eastern states of West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar only account for a total of 1200 cases but these states had the highest rate of growth, which is measured by their reproduction numbers, IE reported. Reproduction number is the average number of patients who are infected by an already infected patient.

The latest analysis was done by the scientists at the Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The curve of cases in West Bengal was flattening by the end of March but now it seems to be on a different trajectory, Sitabhra Sinha, one of the team members of the research told IE. He also said that through graphic analysis, West Bengal seems to be following the Maharashtra numbers with a three week lag. West Bengal also has the highest rate of doubling Covid-19 cases across the country, IE reported.

Comparing the reproduction number of the states, Sinha said that the country’s reproduction number had come down from 1.83(before lockdown) to 1.29 now, whereas West Bengal’s reproduction number is considerably high at 1.52. The number is even worse in Bihar and Jharkhand where the reproduction number is 2.03 and 1.87 respectively.The research team calculations show that the cases in Maharashtra and Gujarat are rising but rising at a consistent rate. Reproduction number in Maharashtra and Gujarat, according to the team, is 1.5 and 1.38 respectively.

The research team also said that the situation in the country was better off due to the nationwide lockdown which slowed the growth of the virus. According to the team’s estimates, the country would have crossed the number of 1 lakh positive cases had there been no lockdown.

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