Covid-19 third wave has already reached its peak in Delhi-Mumbai-Kolkata, says expert

Earlier Dr Agarwal predicted the third wave to peak by January end based on the model and that the infections in the new wave are spreading faster than projected earlier.

In Maharashtra it was predicted to peak by the 19th but since the trajectory is almost flat now, it may peak sooner.

The three metros of the country, Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are witnessing a fall in Covd-19 cases and positivity rate in the last couple of days. While in the national capital cases have fallen consistently since hitting 28,867 mark on January 13. The financial capital Mumbai’s cases fell below the 10,000 mark on Sunday for the first time since early this year. Kolkata has also relaxed restrictions over declining cases.

According to Dr Manindra Agarwal, Professor of IIT, Kanpur the Covid wave has reached its peak already as predicted by IIT ‘s Sutra model. State-wise peak in Maharashtra, Haryana. Gujarat will come this week, he told ANI.

Earlier Dr Agarwal predicted the third wave to peak by January end based on the model and that the infections in the new wave are spreading faster than projected earlier. According to the IIT Professor, there are two reasons for this. The first reason is the Omicron variant is spreading the group with less immunity faster causing a sharp rise and then in the group with more immunity at a slower pace until it is arrested.

The second reason for its faster spread is the general population concluding that it is a milder infection and handling it with standard remedies instead of getting tested.

In Maharashtra it was predicted to peak by the 19th but since the trajectory is almost flat now, it may peak sooner. Gujarat and Haryana too are predicted to peak by 20th. . Other states like the southern states of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka to witness its weak in the next week \, he affirmed. In Karnataka it will peak on around the 23rd, while in Tamil Nadu as the new phase started late it will peak on Jan 25th and in Andhra Pradesh in or around the last day of January. He said that the trajectory has started deviating in Tamil Nadu but no such deviation in Andhra as the spread is in its early stage now.

In Assam his predictions say the third wave will peak on Jan 26th . There are no phase changes yet as the blue curve is suggesting there will be one soon.

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