Growth rates of infections have, as in the case of India, slowed for Maharashtra and Gujarat, states like Delhi and Tamil Nadu are rising.
India will reach four lakh infections over the weekend, after having added a record 13,607 cases on Friday. Though growth rates have fallen as the number of infections has risen — since May 1, cases grew at 4.2% every day versus 5.1% in lockdown 4 from May 17 to 30 — this is higher than that for most developed countries. That is why, within the next 20 days, India will have overtaken Russia to be the world’s 3rd-highest in terms of the number of infections; in terms of the number of fresh infections every day, India is already at the third position with the US, adding 27,000 new infections every day and Brazil 23,000.
Growth rates of infections have, as in the case of India, slowed for Maharashtra and Gujarat, states like Delhi and Tamil Nadu are rising. While daily infections grew at a compounded rate of 5% between May 17 and 30, or Lockdown 4, they grew at 5.7% since (Unlock 1 phase). In the case of Tamil Nadu, growth has increased from 5.1% to 5.2% in the same period.
In Mumbai, thanks to the municipal authorities being able to slow the spread in slums like Dharavi, growth rates have fallen from 5.4% to 2.8%.Equally worrying, deaths are rising faster than ever. As of June 19, India had 12,596 deaths. Deaths have increased by 5.1% daily in the last 18 days, whereas in the fourth lockdown daily growth rate was only 4.3%. Growth in deaths in all states, barring a few, are higher than the previous lockdown, but Delhi and Tamil Nadu seem to be registering nearly a 10% growth. Haryana is adding 11.1% deaths daily. While India’s death rate increased to 3.3% on June 19 as compared to 2.8% on June 1, Delhi’s death rate was 3.9% on June 19, 1.7 times higher than June 1. If the Delhi government’s projection of one lakh cases by the end of June and 5.5 lakh by the end of July turns out to be accurate, India’s tally is only expected to increase. In terms of new cases, Delhi added 2,877 cases on Friday, which makes it the 14th highest in the world; Delhi is now adding nearly as many cases as Colombia.