Cases have grown at 4.1% daily since the government announced Unlock 1.0, deaths have increased by 5.1% during this period.
India recorded 465 deaths on Wednesday taking the death toll to 14,476. As the deaths keep piling up India will soon cross the 15,000-mark, becoming only the eighth country in the world to record over 15,000 deaths. While cases in the country have been growing fast, deaths have been growing faster during the last one month. Cases have grown at 4.1% daily since the government announced Unlock 1.0, deaths have increased by 5.1% during this period.
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It doesn’t help that four cities—Delhi, Ahmedabad, Kolkata and Mumbai—account for 56% of India’s deaths, and their ratio in the country’s deaths has only increased. A month ago, these four cities held a 50% share in country’s deaths.
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Although India still has a lower death rate as compared to say a US or a Brazil, case fatality rates have been rising. At 3.2% India’s case fatality was higher than 2.8% a month ago. For cities. these rates have seen a drastic rise. Mumbai’s rates have increased from 3.2% to 5.6%, whereas for Chennai they have doubled. Delhi too has witnessed deaths rates rise to 3.5%, from 2.4% on June 1.
Given that death growth has outpaced growth in cases, these ratios are only expected to increase. A 15-day forecast for India shows that the country will have a death rate of 4%.