Coronavirus Outbreak: India’s one month expansion rate of COVID-19 lower than other countries

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Published: April 1, 2020 3:34 PM

Coronavirus in India: India's one month expansion rate of COVID-19 is lower than most countries! The expansion of COVID-19 in India has been at a slower pace when compared to other countries.

It is a bit premature to give a value judgement in regards to the exact reason for the occurrence of the coronavirus. (Reuters image)In March, India’s positive cases reached more than one thousand from just three.

Coronavirus in India: India’s one month expansion rate of COVID-19 is lower than most countries! The expansion of COVID-19 in India has been at a slower pace when compared to other countries. As of March 19, the transmitting rate in India from one person stood at 1.7 people on an average, the IE reported. However, the rate went up to 1.81 people from one person to another by March 26, the report said citing Sitabhra Sinha, a scientist from the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai. When comparing these numbers to the global scenario, during the same time, one person has been infecting 2-3 people. The report highlighted that despite the rate of COVID-19 transmission increasing within India, it still remains on the lower side.

Now how is the rate of COVID-19 transmission calculated? It is to note that the rate of transmission is also called a “reproduction number” or R0. It is used to describe how contagious the disease is and can be checked by analysing how many people are infected by one person.

Talking about the month of March, India’s positive cases reached more than one thousand from just three. However, when one compares this to the growth in the number of cases in South Korea, it can be noticed that India’s curve has been flatter. The curve has not gone up significantly as it did for other countries at a corresponding duration. Not only this, but the death rate too remained on a flatter note. The report asserted that India’s COVID-19 cases were surely lower than Iran, Spain, Italy, South Korea but higher than that of Singapore.

On a weekly basis, in India, the cases first went from 3 to 43 in the first week. Then it went to 114 cases in the second week and 415 cases in the third week. The cases jumped directly to 1,071 cases on the 29th day of the month. On the other hand, South Korea reported 1,766 cases in 29 days where the country has said that 31st patient was “super-spreader” who had transmitted the infection to many. Singapore numbers went up to 17,361 in 29 days.

While in India, the cases are expected to reach 3,000 in the first week of April, the report said. In a worst case scenario, it may go up to 5,000 positive Coronavirus cases. The impact of the 21-day lockdown announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to be seen. Meanwhile, the government has tweeted that “measures taken for COVID-19 menace has not let the spread of the deadly virus go out of hand in India yet.”

According to the data by WHO, the United States has the highest number of cases at 140,640 cases followed by Italy with 101,739 cases. China, the epicenter of this global pandemic currently has 82,545 cases.

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