Coronavirus: How India can avert 2 lakh Covid-19 deaths before December 1

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Updated: Aug 29, 2020 6:27 PM

India for the last few weeks has reported cases of coronavirus in excess of 50,000 and the total number of cases has crossed the 3-million mark on August 29, with a spike of 76,472 new cases and 1,021 deaths in the last 24 hours.

This threshold is focused on when governments around the world usually have implemented lockdowns to avoid transmission of COVID-19.

According to a study done by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Covid-19 will remain a major threat to the India’s public health infrastructure. However, the study has suggested that the country can still avert the deaths in volume as big as 200,000 deaths by December 1, 2020, with pre-emptive measures such as the enforcement of social distancing initiatives and a mandatory mask-wearing by households.

The IHME model of coronavirus outbreak has suggested that India could report about 291,145 total COVID-19 deaths by December 1. This scenario assumes that face mask use rises to near-universal (95 per cent) levels and that state-level lockdowns of six weeks are re-imposed if the state’s daily death rate reaches 8 per million.

This threshold is focused on when governments around the world usually have implemented lockdowns to avoid transmission of COVID-19. By comparison, if the restrictions on lockdown continue to ease and face mask use stays at current levels, India can expect around 492,380 deaths by December 1. And, 13 states will have over 10,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in this case by that time.

India’s response to COVID-19 has provided some important achievements that highlight the possibility of reducing the toll of the pandemic at home. In some urban areas, including Delhi, prevention measures that include extensive touch monitoring, widespread testing, mask-wearing, and requirements for social distancing have helped to minimise virus spread. Moreover, COVID-19 testing in India has rapidly scaled up.

India for the last few weeks has reported cases of coronavirus in excess of 50,000 and the total number of cases has crossed the 3-million mark on August 29, with a spike of 76,472 new cases and 1,021 deaths in the last 24 hours.

India’s Covid-19 tally now stands at 34,63,973 including 7,52,424 active and 26,48,999 cured/discharged/migrated cases and 62,550 deaths due to the coronavirus infection.

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