Samsung’s decision to unveil three new Galaxy Z foldable smartphones ahead of Apple’s widely expected foldable iPhone launch has intensified the battle for India’s nascent foldable smartphone market, with analysts saying Apple’s entry could become the trigger that pushes the category into the mainstream.
While Samsung remains the dominant player, Apple’s arrival is expected to lend credibility to the form factor, accelerate rival product cycles and spur wider consumer adoption, even as the broader smartphone market slows.
Samsung last week introduced the Galaxy Z Fold8, the Galaxy Z Flip8 Ultra and Galaxy Z Flip8, while Motorola has also refreshed its Razr foldable portfolio in recent weeks. The launches come ahead of Apple’s much speculated iPhone Fold, expected around September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro.
Analysts view the recent launches as more than routine annual upgrades, saying smartphone makers are keen to strengthen their foldable portfolios before Apple enters a segment it has so far stayed away from.
The heightened activity comes at a time when foldables remain one of the few bright spots in an otherwise slowing smartphone market. According to Counterpoint Research, India’s cumulative foldable smartphone shipments are expected to cross 3 million units by the end of 2026, growing at a compound annual rate of nearly 80% since 2019. Annual foldable shipments are projected to rise around 8% this year, even as overall smartphone shipments are expected to decline 13-14% to about 133-134 million units due to rising memory and component costs. Samsung currently accounts for about 89% of India’s foldable market, with Motorola holding around 8%.
Analysts, however, believe Apple’s significance lies less in the volumes it may sell and more in the confidence it could bring to the category. Unlike other smartphone brands, Apple has a large base of users who typically remain within its ecosystem, many of whom have waited for a foldable iPhone before considering the form factor.
“Apple’s entry is likely to be the biggest catalyst for the foldable market since Samsung introduced the modern foldable smartphone. Beyond its own sales, it will add greater credibility to the category, especially among iPhone users who have been waiting for an Apple foldable,” Prachir Singh, senior research analyst at Counterpoint Research, said.
Faisal Kawoosa, chief analyst at Techarc, said Apple’s absence has so far prevented foldables from being viewed as a mature product category. “Apple is the only tier-one global brand that is not commercially participating in this form factor, and that gap has left consumers doubting the category’s maturity,” he said.
According to Kawoosa, Apple’s history suggests the company is comfortable entering product categories well after rivals, focusing instead on refining the user experience once the technology has matured. He cited examples such as large-screen smartphones, smartwatches and wireless earbuds, where Apple entered later but helped expand the market.
Beyond consumer demand, Apple’s entry is also expected to influence the broader supply chain. Analysts say the company’s manufacturing scale and stringent quality requirements could push suppliers to improve durability standards for key components such as foldable displays, hinges and ultra-thin glass. While any meaningful reduction in component costs is likely to take time given the limited supplier base, the combined effect of Samsung stepping up competition and Apple entering the market is expected to accelerate innovation across the ecosystem.
Counterpoint expects book-style foldables, which resemble compact tablets when unfolded, to account for nearly two-thirds of India’s foldable shipments in 2026 as buyers increasingly prefer larger screens for productivity and entertainment. For the industry, analysts say, Apple’s arrival may ultimately matter less for the number of foldable iPhones it sells than for the momentum it creates across brands, suppliers and consumers.