Amid the rise of AI and a new world order, Google has issued a warning related to quantum computers – they could break most of today’s encryption standards by 2029, potentially exposing everything from Bitcoin wallets and bank transactions to private communications and government secrets. The Search giant has accelerated its own migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), urging banks, governments, and technology providers to follow suit before it’s too late.
In a recent blog post and accompanying research paper, Google researchers highlighted rapid progress in quantum hardware, error correction, and resource estimates for quantum attacks. The company has now set 2029 as its internal deadline to transition critical systems away from vulnerable cryptographic algorithms.
A ‘quantum’ threat to cryptocurrency
One of the major risks from quantum computing is the threat to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Google’s analysis suggests that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from a revealed public key during a Bitcoin transaction in as little as nine minutes, which is faster than the network’s average block time.
This “harvest now, decrypt later” scenario is particularly dangerous as attackers could steal encrypted data today and wait until quantum machines become available to unlock it. Approximately 6.7 million Bitcoin addresses are considered especially vulnerable. While old, unspent addresses using certain signature schemes face a higher risk, even active transactions could be targeted in real time once quantum capabilities mature.
Ethereum and other blockchains are already exploring quantum-resistant upgrades, but the broader crypto ecosystem faces a race against time.
Impact on banking and digital security
The threat from quantum computing extends far beyond crypto. Current encryption standards protecting online bank transactions, email, chat apps, file transfers, and digital identities could all become obsolete. Google warned that quantum computers pose a “significant threat to current cryptographic standards” before the end of the decade.
A quantum system with roughly 1,200–1,450 logical qubits may be enough to crack widely used 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography, the backbone of much of modern internet security.
Google stated that the timeline for “Q-Day” – the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer emerges – may be closer than previously assumed. The company has already adjusted its threat model and prioritised post-quantum migration for authentication services.
Google urges immediate action
At the moment, Google says that there’s no fully capable quantum computer existing today. However, its updated estimates show that the computing power required for successful attacks could be lower than earlier projections. The firm is actively urging organisations worldwide to begin transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms now.
Experts note that while full-scale quantum computers capable of breaking RSA or ECC encryption are still under development, the pace of progress in Google’s quantum lab and elsewhere has sped up the sense of urgency.