In a wide-ranging conversation on WTF by Nikhil Kamath, entrepreneur and investor Nikhil Kamath spoke with legendary investor and Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks about market cycles, entrepreneurship, AI, aging and the challenge of staying relevant in a rapidly changing world.
Across the episode, Marks speaks candidly about investing, leadership, intentionality, and the reality that most people spend their lives searching for certainty in systems built on uncertainty.
Reflecting on markets and predictions, Marks says, “I believe in strategy. What I really don’t believe in is predictions,” arguing that people often try to eliminate ambiguity by creating narratives about a future nobody can actually foresee. Instead, he believes preparation matters more than certainty.
The conversation also explores Marks’ long-standing thinking on cycles and investor psychology.
Cycles are driven less by economics and more by human behaviour:
According to him, cycles are driven less by economics and more by human behaviour — excess optimism, overbuilding, overspending, and the inevitable corrections that follow. “The norm is never the average,” he says, pointing to the reality that markets rarely behave in smooth or predictable ways.
Howard Marks on AI:
Speaking about artificial intelligence, Howard Marks said his perspective has shifted over time from doubt to genuine curiosity. While he acknowledged the rapid growth and unavoidable rise of AI, he also raised concerns about whether systems that rely heavily on pattern recognition can handle situations that have no historical comparison or past data to learn from. “If what AI does is pattern matching, then how will it deal with something where there’s no pattern?” he asked.
For younger founders and operators, some of the most resonant moments come from Marks reflecting on his own life. He openly describes spending much of his early career “adrift,” allowing opportunities to guide him rather than making highly intentional choices. Starting Oaktree, he says, changed that completely. “Entrepreneurship is the epitome of intentionality.”
The episode also touches on ego, learning, and staying relevant with age. At 80, Marks still actively reads across subjects he knows nothing about, solves puzzles, and seeks out unfamiliar ideas. He describes learning not as a hobby, but as survival.