Bollywood gets big-budget shy

The numbers reveal a paradox in Hindi cinema. As movie-goers continue to embrace large-scale theatrical spectacles, Bollywood’s biggest production houses have struggled to consistently recreate the kind of success that defines an era.

The unprecedented success of the Ranveer Singh-starrer Dhurandhar franchise has further intensified the debate over the future of big-budget Hindi cinema. The two installments together may have crossed Rs 3,100 crore globally, with the first film earning over Rs 1,350 crore and the second Rs 1,850 crore, but trade analysts believe it is an extraordinary exception rather than evidence of a return to an era of frequent mega-budget blockbusters.

In today’s theatrical market, scale alone cannot guarantee success. Films need a rare combination of compelling storytelling, audience anticipation, star power, franchise value and strategic positioning to justify investments running into hundreds of crores.

Film critic and business analyst Taran Adarsh believes comparisons with Dhurandhar must be made cautiously because such box-office milestones are extremely rare. “Not every film can be Dhurandhar. Films like Pathaan and Jawan have delivered phenomenal box office numbers, but Dhurandhar is a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon that comes very rarely,” he says.

Adarsh points out that even filmmakers behind historic blockbusters have found it difficult to recreate the same magic repeatedly. Citing the example of the 1970s, he recalls that after the record-breaking success of Sholay, director Ramesh Sippy followed it with Shaan. Despite having a strong cast and achieving commercial success, Shaan could not match the cultural impact and box-office dominance of Sholay. Similarly, Maine Pyar Kiya was followed by Hum Aapke Hain Koun..!, which surpassed its predecessor and created a new benchmark, but remains an exception rather than a trend.

A new Bollywood cycle

The post-pandemic audience is redefining what works in theatres. Viewers are now drawn to films that feel distinctive, emotionally engaging and purpose-driven rather than formulaic. The success of Dhurandhar reflects this shift, leaving the year’s second-highest Hindi grosser, Border 2 (Rs 450 crore), far behind.

Actor Saif Ali Khan recently said that the industry needs to recognise that audiences are demanding more from theatrical cinema. Viewers, he said, are responding to films that are passionately made, unconventional and offer a fresh experience.

“I see a time before Dhurandhar and a time after Dhurandhar,” he said, adding that filmmakers must adapt and make bolder choices in the new environment.

He also praised the franchise’s approach to music and cautioned filmmakers against underestimating audiences, pointing to the growing gap between exceptional blockbusters and ordinary theatrical releases.

Khan’s own recent box-office journey highlights the challenges faced even by established stars. His last major theatrical success came with Tanhaji (2020). Since then, films such as Jawaani Jaaneman, Bunty Aur Babli 2 and Vikram Vedha struggled to do well commercially. Adipurush and Devara Part 1 earned Rs 393 crore and Rs 428 crore globally, respectively, but both were considered underwhelming given their scale, budgets and expectations.

Top industry honchos say blockbuster success now depends on a combination of factors that are difficult to reproduce every year. “Every two to three years, Bollywood witnesses a big year followed by a relatively slower one because our biggest stars do not release films annually. Large-scale action and VFX-driven films can take up to two years to complete, unlike smaller films that may be finished within six to nine months. This is a natural production cycle rather than a sign of decline,” says Murlidhar Chhatwani, CEO, distribution and syndication, regional production, of Panorama Studios, a film production and distribution company founded by Kumar Mangat Pathak.

The changing economics of filmmaking has forced production houses like Panorama Studios to prioritise quality over quantity. The studio has produced only four films over four years, including Drishyam 2, Shaitaan, Raid 2 and the recent Drishyam 3, focusing on content quality and brand value.

Structural shift

The broader franchise landscape highlights how difficult it is to consistently create mega-scale successes. Only a handful of properties have delivered sustained box-office momentum over multiple instalments. The YRF Spy Universe remains India’s highest-grossing film franchise, collecting over Rs 3,200 crore across six films — Ek Tha Tiger (2012), Tiger Zinda Hai (2017), War (2019), Pathaan (2023), Tiger 3 (2023) and War 2 (2025). It is followed by the Baahubali franchise, which has earned over Rs 2,400 crore from two films; Pushpa with more than Rs 2,000 crore across two films; KGF with over Rs 1,450 crore; and Rohit Shetty’s Cop Universe, which has crossed Rs 1,400 crore across five films.

Beyond franchises, even established studios have found that scale does not automatically translate into blockbuster returns. Dharma Productions’ recent theatrical releases, including Good Newwz, Sooryavanshi and Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani, remained below the Rs 400-crore mark globally, while Simmba (2018) narrowly crossed the benchmark with collections of around Rs 400 crore.

Industry experts say the theatrical market has not weakened but has undergone a structural shift. Audiences are willing to spend on cinema, but only when a film offers a strong reason to return to theatres. While the pandemic changed viewing habits and altered Bollywood’s production strategy, Chhatwani says, one of the biggest shifts was the growing acceptance of south Indian cinema among Hindi-speaking audiences. “The Hindi audience split into two segments — one continued watching Bollywood, while another embraced dubbed south Indian films. That pushed Bollywood towards making more mass entertainers,” he says.

Films such as Gadar 2, Stree 2 and Animal show that profitability is not determined by scale alone but a strong audience connection, emotional resonance, authentic storytelling rather than bloated budgets. Gadar 2 (2023) earned over Rs 690 crore worldwide against an estimated budget of around Rs 60-75 crore, while Stree 2 (2024) crossed Rs 850 crore against a reported budget of nearly Rs 60–70 crore. Animal (2023), made at an estimated budget of around Rs 100 crore, collected over Rs 900 crore globally.

The rise of streaming platforms has also raised audience expectations. Viewers have access to content from across the world, forcing filmmakers to compete not only on scale but also on storytelling quality. “Audiences are exposed to Korean, Japanese, Indonesian, Mexican and Malayalam cinema, forcing filmmakers to compete not only on scale but also on storytelling quality,” says Chhatwani.

The theatrical market has recovered in value terms, but audience frequency remains a concern. The post-pandemic recovery was uneven, with 2022 proving particularly challenging. However, films such as Pathaan, Jawan and Gadar 2 helped bring audiences back, while 2025 emerged as Hindi cinema’s biggest-ever year with over Rs 5,500 crore in domestic box-office collections.

Sameer Munshi, COO, Miraj Entertainment, says the market has become more polarised rather than slowed down. Average ticket prices, he says, are around 22% higher than 2019 levels, while admissions remain about 8% below pre-pandemic numbers. “The industry is earning more per head, but visit frequency hasn’t fully recovered. The money looks healthy, but the habit isn’t fully back yet,” he says.

According to Munshi, films capable of creating excitement continue to deliver exceptional numbers, while average films struggle to sustain theatrical runs. This explains why studios are cautious of approving multiple high-cost projects simultaneously. “A single failure at the Rs 250-300 crore budget level can significantly impact a production house’s balance sheet,” adds Munshi.

For exhibitors, every Friday has become a higher-stakes gamble. Films that fail to connect quickly lose screens, while successful titles enjoy longer theatrical runs. “Pan-India blockbusters like KGF and Pushpa, followed by Hindi films like Dhurandhar, Stree 2 and Border 2, reminded audiences why cinemas remain irreplaceable,” says Munshi.

Stars, stories & scale

The success of recent blockbusters has reinforced another reality of the Hindi film industry: the right combination of star power, scale and storytelling remains crucial to creating theatrical impact.

Over the past few years, production houses such as Maddock Films, Dharma Productions, Yash Raj Films, T-Series, Bhansali Productions, Excel Entertainment and, more recently, Jio Studios and B62 Studios with the Dhurandhar franchise, have played an important role in strengthening the Hindi theatrical market. Their success reflects a growing understanding of what audiences seek: films that combine scale with emotional connect and engaging storytelling.

According to Sanjeev Kumar Bijli, executive director, PVR INOX, the debate is no longer about choosing between content and star power. The strongest performers, he says, are those where both elements work together. “Stars generate excitement, visibility and strong opening momentum, while compelling narratives, emotional resonance and audience appreciation sustain a film’s theatrical journey,” he says.

Dhurandhar represents this evolving formula. Ranveer Singh’s star power created initial anticipation, while the film’s scale, storytelling and emotional connect helped convert curiosity into sustained theatrical footfalls.

However, the industry’s dependence on established stars has also raised concerns about the future pipeline of Hindi cinema. According to Ormax Media’s analysis, Bollywood’s star system is showing limited renewal, with the absence of a new generation of bankable male stars emerging as a long-term challenge. Stardom remains important not only for box-office performance but also for building audience loyalty, cultural relevance and producer confidence to invest in ambitious projects.

The male star rankings have remained largely unchanged, with Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, Akshay Kumar, Hrithik Roshan and Ranbir Kapoor continuing to dominate. This limited churn comes despite younger audiences contributing 57% of Hindi box-office collections. The lack of younger bankable male stars could particularly impact genres such as romance, youth dramas and coming-of-age films, where youthful appeal plays a critical role.

The female star ecosystem, however, shows comparatively better renewal. Kriti Sanon has joined established names such as Alia Bhatt, Deepika Padukone, Shraddha Kapoor and Katrina Kaif, while emerging performers including Kiara Advani, Rashmika Mandanna and Aneet Padda indicate a stronger pipeline of talent.

Ormax Media’s analysis suggests that Bollywood needs to move beyond publicity-driven talent management and focus on building long-term stars through stronger scripts, strategic career choices and sustained audience engagement.

Without developing the next generation of performers with mass appeal, the industry risks weakening its long-term theatrical prospects despite occasional blockbuster successes.

More films, fewer choices

The theatrical market has undergone a transformation rather than a slowdown, says Bijli, adding, “India’s overall box office grew 11% year-on-year to Rs 13,519 crore in FY26, while original Hindi films increased their share from 29% in FY25 to 42% in FY26, driven by a 55% rise in Hindi gross box-office collections.”

However, the audience is now more careful in theatrical outings. “With a wider range of entertainment choices available, cinema visits have become more intentional, and audiences are rewarding films that offer strong storytelling, cultural relevance, scale and a compelling big-screen experience,” says Ashish Saksena, COO, cinemas, BookMyShow, who points to films such as Chhaava, Saiyaara, 12th Fail and Laapataa Ladies as examples of how Hindi cinema continues to find audiences when the proposition is strong.

Wider pan-India releases, stronger digital marketing, increasing cinema penetration and greater accessibility have expanded the reach of theatrical films. At the same time, the growing acceptance of regional cinema, anime and diverse genres has increased competition and raised audience expectations.

Ultimately, box-office performance today depends less on star power alone and more on a film’s ability to create a compelling reason for audiences to leave their homes and experience it on the big screen.

Exhibitors also believe the industry needs a balanced pipeline — large-scale event films that generate excitement and bring audiences back to cinemas, along with mid-budget films that ensure a steady flow of theatrical releases.

“The industry does not just need occasional Rs 1,000-crore blockbusters; it needs a consistent supply of quality films that encourage audiences to return throughout the year,” says Munshi.

Positive word-of-mouth, repeat viewership and sustained occupancy have emerged as key indicators of long-term success. According to Bijli, “This evolution has strengthened the importance of quality storytelling, encouraged creative diversity and reinforced cinemas as destinations for immersive entertainment.”