With 303 deaths from Covid-19, Delhi may not appear to be as severely affected as Mumbai or Ahmedabad, which have recorded 1,097 and 764 deaths. However, the data suggests that fatalities in the capital may be rising faster than in any other state or city in the country.
Delhi has been averaging an 8.1% daily increase in deaths since the start of Lockdown 4.0. This figure was a much lower 5.1% in the third lockdown and almost half (4.4%) in the second lockdown. Mumbai’s daily growth in death in the fourth lockdown is 4.2, whereas Ahmedabad is 4.1%. In fact, barring three or four states, most states have a growth rate below 5%. India’s growth rate of deaths during the fourth lockdown is nearly half of Delhi at 4.2%.
If Delhi stays on this path with deaths growing faster than infections, the city may end up with a death rate of 3% by June 10, and 5.9% by June 30.
Delhi, at present, only accounts for 6.7% of India’s deaths. At the current growth rate, it will account for 10.7% of India’s deaths by June 10 and 22% by June 30.
An analysis in this paper (bit.ly/3dadl3d) showed that if infections keep rising at the current rate, the city may end up with 2.8 lakh cases by end-July. During which time, Delhi would need 42,243 hospital beds, 3,851 ICU beds and 564 ventilators. As the city runs out of ICUs and hospital beds, the death toll will only rise.
